Decision Time - Champagne or Jack Daniels

Sometimes I amaze myself at what a knucklehead I am. It’s interesting though that my wife is never amazed.

I know lot of traders who pick tops and bottoms and only a few have been successful. That’s why I like to take the easy route and try to pick turns but not trade them. I wait until the market starts down ticking to sell off a high or up ticking to buy off a low. Makes sense right?

Unless you’re a knucklehead.

Today I thought I was smarter than the Market and bought what I thought was the bottom. I had a few friends who did so too so that always gives you some false confidence.

I bought on down ticks, not up ticks and the market kept down ticking. I quickly remembered why I don’t do this, it’s the stress that it creates while having a pretty decent package on and it immediately starts ticking against you. On days like today it can easily break 5-6 handles against you in a few minutes without an opportunity to get out.

In the end, the Market started to rally and the trade worked out even better than I had expected. I expected the market to trade up to the IB low 1307.75 before breaking again but it went a little further. But I took some heat on the trade and that leaves me stressed and worn out at the end of the day.

There is a perfect remedy for that and it’s a bit of Jack Daniels. Depending on the stress level it might be on the rocks, with a slash of water or with coke (a-cola that is). I’m thinking with a splash….

The Market needs to make a decision here, will it join me with some Jack or will it go back to sipping Champagne?

The Market will have to start trading and settle above 1313.50 -1312.25, today’s opening range, to tell us that this fun run is done. Champagne for all.

If we start trading and settle under 1294-1295 then we may have a meaningful change in trend…which would be right on time…. Crack another bottle of Jack for Mack.