I was in the mall this weekend and panic set in. I could not find my way to the espresso bar. Luckily I came across a map marked with an arrow “you are here”.
Simply look up were I wanted to go and I knew what direction to head.
Here is a “possible map” I could be wrong but I used a fractal comparison of the 1929-1930 price action to 2007-2010. My theory is that similar excess investment capital created both highs and the same contraction of credit created the declines off the highs.
The recent period took longer because there are many more players in the market and a lot more capital. Nevertheless, crowds behave the same under similar conditions.
I am wrong if we take out the April high.
Simply look up were I wanted to go and I knew what direction to head.
Here is a “possible map” I could be wrong but I used a fractal comparison of the 1929-1930 price action to 2007-2010. My theory is that similar excess investment capital created both highs and the same contraction of credit created the declines off the highs.
The recent period took longer because there are many more players in the market and a lot more capital. Nevertheless, crowds behave the same under similar conditions.
I am wrong if we take out the April high.
5 comments:
Thanks! I suppose, kind of scary if you are correct.
TMACK!!!
Please do not post Attila like charts proclaiming the end of the world. I am absolutely ashamed! We should bottom between the 850-970 area on the SPX and then head to make ALL-TIME new highs. I predict around 1500-1600 before the debt pig takes us below the 666 low. Have you read The Creature from Jekyll Island? If you read it you would see the entire game plan. Fed leads us in periods of boom and bust. When we bust they plead for tax dollars in order to save the system. It is a a rigged system. After a test of 850-970 area I would stay long.
Regards.
Tim, most of your thoughts are in line with mine Peculiarly! what would keep the market going up until August in your mind?
What exactly is "Fractal Comparison". It looks like you put the daily closing chart from the Depression and put some arrows on it. I read a paper on Fractal Comparison with regards to economic data, but it seems more like the author inappropriately applied signal processing equations to a set of arbitrary data in the hopes of teasing out sort of trend. Unfortunately it seemed to have little to do with actual fractals.
Alice I suggest you read "The Misbehavior of Markets by Benoit Mandelbrot. The book will give you more of an insight to fractals than a paper. There is also a speech by Mandelbrot at the MIT website that is worth viewing but its best to read the book first so that you have an academic understanding of the principal first.
Good luck in trading or investing, your approach will need it.
Tim
Post a Comment