Offered off the open – Joey is back at his old tricks

Two hands raised palms out right off the bell.

There are several ranges I look at before the open. The value area which was 1202.00 – 1192.00, a proprietary range which was 1206.00 - 1191.00, the prior days RTH range 1202- 1187.

When the market opens above or below all these ranges you can bet that the sentiment of the prior day changed overnight. In other words, don’t expect the same mindset that created the value areas and most of the prior days range to continue. If it continues you would likely see a rotation back to at least the middle of the range before other time frame players stepped in and started to move the market in one direction or the other. This morning those “other time frame” players had already stepped in as sellers (and lack of buyers) and that is why the markets were already trading lower. This case may be more prevalent now that European traders are actively trading the e mini (either arbing or outright) and much younger traders than I are getting up early (or stay up late, or don’t sleep at all). I need me beauty sleep.


Joey’s back to his ‘ol tricks

The markets sold off with paper sellers and short locals to 77.00 which was an important support area as it was a single print from April 8 and support from April 28. Although there weren’t any paper buyers stepping in, there was some size buying on the screen. The whole pit was short and why not, they hadn’t felt a bottom and they needed more Paper sellers to buy from to cover. Joey sees this and he comes in bid fighting the whole pit. He was aggressive on the bid using the size screen buyers to hopefully gain momentum. Those buyers, after they came in at 77.00, didn’t follow through. If you don’t believe 1 guy can move the market look at prices from 10:06- 10:26 ET. This 3 handle move is “Joey and crew” manipulating the market by bidding up the market and selling 1 lots for prints. But you can only manipulate the market for so long. This is why the “Plunge Protection Team” is a bunch of crap. Not even the Fed is big enough to manipulate the markets. And if there was a PPT where were they in ’08? Oh right - it’s a Fed program so it worked as well as all the other Fed programs.

The OR held and the weight of the selling pressure came in and that was all she wrote…….

I think we may have found an import bottom at the 64.00 area. The locals got short and aggressively offered the price lower starting at +/- 69.00 at 3:36 ET. They pushed into the low print at 64.25 where they found ONLY stops and bought the low. The whole rise from 64.25 to 73.0 were locals on the bid and lack of Paper. Lets see you do that electronically - good luck. I am not saying that they always get their way, they get run over like the rest of us but the locals have the master ability to manipulate the market when the opportunity presents itself and they are experts at recognizing those opportunities.

If we open above +/-64.00 we should see higher prices. If 64.00 doesn’t hold then we have something else on our hands and warrants a very careful evaluation.

Tim Mack