Pre Market April 19, 2010

We 1 ticked the low in the overnight session and didn’t find any Globex sellers under there. We are in limbo until the Regular Trading Hours (RTH) start at 9:30 ET. We will probably test this area today but it all depends on the opening bell. Traders had the weekend to mull over the Goldman issue and everyone expects at least a pull back from this relentless climb up over the last month or so.

There may be an initial flush of Sell Paper on the open with other Paper sitting on the sidelines to see how the market trades, but if the locals absorb all the sell paper they will be "size" long and if they can hold the market above the OR (the first minute of the RTH session, this differs from the opening range set by the Merc where initial orders are required to trade) they will get a lot of help by those gap fill traders and we should see the 1990 area. However in my world that gap is considered already filled in the overnight. Way too many traders are playing while I’m getting my beauty rest.

I have a number I like to keep a close eye on - it’s the 8 day moving average (simple) of the average daily Value Areas. To me this is the average Value over the last 8 days. Admittedly, it works better when we have consistent ranges and Friday was as inconsistent as it gets but its worth having on my trade sheet as a bias toward the market. Right now the number is 1,189.75. This lines up with the settlement of the last trading day the weekly close and Fridays Point of Control (POC) so that’s an area I will be keeping a close eye on. If we trade above with conviction and acceptance we could be taking at trip to 1197.5 - 1204 area. If we reject it we should see new lows. Can’t wait to see how it plays out.

Tim Mack