I Love A Good Kiss.

Who doesn’t? Even the Market loves a good wet sloppy kiss. The chart below shows the NYSE composite index, one of my favorites for a longer term view, being kissed by the 200 week simple moving average. Lots a kissing going on here and the 200 MA is giving it a big wet sloppy one right now.

NO ONE is to say if this will be a kiss hello or good bye. Some gurus are very good at predicting the Market until they’re not. In other words, no one knows but everyone likes to guess. I hear just as many good technicians calling for more bullish action and just as many saying we going to hell in a hand basket (whatever that means).

In my opinion we should be going to hell in a hand basket because there is no fundamental reason for prices to be at this level. The Feds are simply dropping money from helicopters so that equity prices will rise on free and plentiful money and everyone will feel warm and comfy with their 401K statements and start back on the feast of over consumption and irrational exuberance. On the other hand, looking at the PIIGS and BRICs, we just might be the best game in town and deserve the money flow into US instruments (although if that was very true precious metals might not be on their highs).

My opinion doesn’t pay me. In fact my opinion has cost me more money than its made me. So I will leave it to writing in blogs so I can at least share it and maybe vent a little. My wife has long given up on being interested in my opinion of the Market. Once I start laying in on her with my economic opinions and start giving long winded reasons, she either looks like she has just finished the left over turkey or suddenly needs to go shopping.

What does pay me is the price action, knowing the markets opinion and knowing areas where it may change. It took me a while to figure out that price and the Market don’t give a rats ass about my opinion or the opinion of well paid gurus. If the price is going up then the opinion of the MARKET is bullish. If the prices is going down then the opinion of the MARKET is bearish. If the price is balanced or in a trading range then the MARKET has no opinion.

Our job as technicians and Market timers is to think in terms of probabilities and having an opinion can cloud that thought process. Right now the Market is going up. However it is at an important area where it may change this opinion. It is also at this important area below a long term and meaningful trend line. There is a high probability that if the Market kisses the 200 SMA good bye we could be in for a wild ride south. On the other hand, prices could toy in this area a while and then rally leaving the 200 SMA behind in its dust (a pretty good scenario if the PIIGS end up on the barbeque). Price could also pop up a bit more to form a top then head south, a better bearish scenario as the “look” isn’t quite right for top.



The pit action has been telling. Goldman played the long side going into Friday jobs and then have been covering longs and possibly scaling in short (know that GS trading may be different clients or their prop trading, you don’t know but when Goldman talks in size people listen). Locals have been getting run over. It seems that they are having less and less ability to muscle the market. As an example, Friday they were short and pushing lower but with very little buy paper, the Market rallied strong. This was all electronic trading which they can not influence.

We have had 5 days in a row of low ARMS readings and that is an indicator that the market is getting too over bought. We should see a nice break this week maybe Monday but maybe on Turn Around Tuesday. This will help us read the Markets opinion. If we rally back and retrace this break we may just be giving the Market that kiss hello. If we make a token new high and close the week lower it will start to have that right “look” for a top.

In the end there is a high probability that the Markets opinion shall change (or be reaffirmed) in this area. The Market will tell you what that opinion will be but you will have to be patient.

Good trading,

Tim Mack


Ps I think I will continue to refer to the Market as a proper noun, seems appropriate.

Blue Skies and Pink Clouds

Ok that last post was a bit depressing. Maybe I am bearish because Nixon and Volcker made a big mess. I can blame them because hindsight is easy to see faults. I will explain the mistakes they made which led to excessive money supply combined with an over abundance of credit in a detailed post later. In short, their action then inaction created excessive consumption of equities, real estate and anything else that moved or didn’t move. That excessiveness coupled with excessive government spending and corruption is seen at peaks of empires.

Our Presidents are also a sign of a peaking empire. Clinton, who was that last full term President in a rising empire, got away with lying. “I did not have sexual relations with that girl”. Everyone was so drunk and high they simply said… “OK, even if we proved you did, and caught you red handed in a lie; we forgive you because we are stoned and please pass the bong. Oh right, he didn’t inhale-yea right….

Then we elected Bush who was totally unqualified to be a President, We didn’t care, we were drunk. The only thing he had going for him was the momentum of the empire and he had a father who was an experienced President to ask for advice when times got tough. But Bush being Bush relied on the wrong father for advice.

His term was the actual peak. We were still drunk so we reelected him, then we started to sober up and we started down the backside of the mountain. Bush was so bad that we had two minorities as the only real candidates for election. McCain’s big mistake was Palin as he tried to compete with the popular minorities in the other party. All I can say is we are lucky he chose her as he might have been President and we would be in war with North Korea and Iran right now. That will come - be patient.

Poor President Obama – They guy doesn’t have a chance. Even if he was a good President, which there are few as you must be a good leader and they are only good at getting elected which doesn’t qualify you to lead a country, he is fighting the pressure of a declining empire. Only a very strong leader and visionary can make the hard and unpopular choices that are needed to slow the trend. I think he is a smart guy but his handlers will never let him make the right choices. He is certainly not a leader.

The pace at which we consumed life during the ’80’s and ‘90’s is simply a pace that can’t be sustained forever. Sooner or later we have to pay up. Adams Smith’s invisible hand has to “Beech” slap us for all the abuse and misbehavior we participated in. This happens every 40 years or so. It’s just a cycle, this one being bigger than the last few.

Nevertheless, I could be wrong and events might reverse the current direction. These events are yet to come so my outlook is bearish but still, it is possible that the EU breaks up and dollars are in demand as safe haven which will be put to work in treasuries and equities. Its possible that China never measures up to their growth expectations as they have no value for the Rule of Law. As mush as they try to grow and expand their economy it will still be suppressed by the distribution of wealth but not to the poor who can consume goods and better their quality of life but to the crooks who pick and choose what to make, when to make it and who will supply it.

If so, we will likely chop around the 10,000 area just like we did 1,000 and 100. Then we will break to a strong rally and there will be nothing but blue skies and pink clouds,, Oh yea, we will have to get out of two very costly wars and avoid two others for this to happen. Otherwise even if the EU and China are not good investments, neither are we.



Tim Mack

Panic set in !!!!!

I was in the mall this weekend and panic set in. I could not find my way to the espresso bar. Luckily I came across a map marked with an arrow “you are here”.

Simply look up were I wanted to go and I knew what direction to head.

Here is a “possible map” I could be wrong but I used a fractal comparison of the 1929-1930 price action to 2007-2010. My theory is that similar excess investment capital created both highs and the same contraction of credit created the declines off the highs.

The recent period took longer because there are many more players in the market and a lot more capital. Nevertheless, crowds behave the same under similar conditions.

I am wrong if we take out the April high.

Love is in the air…….

Its our anniversary. My wife and I were married 14 years ago today… She forgot.

At least the S&P has found love. Love with 1085. The next objective is this 1102 area which is the top of this longer term value area. As long as we can hold this area we have a shot for a big rally. Its ok if we trade lower tomorrow but we will have to bounce right back up and take off. Watch how price responds to this area and that will give you a clue where we are headed.

Paper sold size off the open and locals were long…Here comes Joey on offer pushing lower. He likes to fade the pit especially when paper is inactive. We couldn’t get the market past the OR which was a great signal that we were set for a bullish day. When he cant muscle the market the market forces are too big against him.

Tim Mack

Everyone has an opinion…including me.

I can't stress enough the importance of listening to others but forming your own.

One opinion that should be weighted more than anyone else’s is (in my opinion, lol) the markets.

The market’s opinion matters a great deal. If the market is going up it has a bullish opinion, if its going down, a bearish. If it is rotating between price levels it has no opinion; it is in value and is not biased to one side or the other. It’s that simple.

On a short term bases the market is looking more and more bullish providing we trade above 1085.00 Sept S&P.

We can test below, maybe gap lower on Monday but if after the bell, we trade through 85.00 by 3 handles and find “love above” then we will look toward 1102.75 area for yet another retest. We have already been there twice and have been rotating between that level and +/-1040.

Based on the weekly close 1085.00 being higher than last weeks close 1062.25 (June) and the Paper buyers coming in light but steady before and after the parade on Friday, if I had to guess, we will see 1102.75. But again, I wont put my money on that opinion (and its even my own, lol). My money will be in the direction of price soon after the bell come Monday.

On a longer term or intermediate term basis, this is where you have to put on your thinking caps and open your ears to the markets opinion. No one else’s

The market has found value in this range of +/-1102 - +/-1040. It’s found a home, a very comfortable level. It has no opinion. Markets don’t stay range bound for ever. Sooner or later the market will break out of the range and decide if it will seek lower prices to find value or higher prices. You can recognize early telltale signs like if we “find love above” 1085.00 then fail to take out 1102 and trade sharply right back through 1085.00 on a rejection. That says the market wants no part of that area and we will likely not only test the low of +/-1040 but cut right through it since it will be our third trip down there. I would rather see a double bottom than a triple. I favor this scenario as we have been trending down since April and markets tend to work off aggressive initiative trades with sideways action, this is also common in a 4th wave.

We can also just kiss +/-1102.00 good bye and rotate right back down to +/- 1040.

We can also trade right up through and find 1102.00 as support which will send us off to test 1118.00 and probably make higher highs until August. That would put the right amount of market analysts on record with a wrong opinion on a contrary move.

The point is, on a longer term basis, the market has a potential to stay in rotation within this valued area, play it safe, and let the day traders have a little fun or, it can break out and there will be some great profit opportunities for longer time frame traders.

Read the price action and it will clearly tell you what the markets opinion is.

Tim Mack

“It is no use saying, 'We are doing our best.' You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary.” - Winston Churchill

Where will the market go next?

If you step back its clear to see that the market is trending down. However the trend is driven by larger time frame traders or decision makers like my buddy Joe da Sixes and large funds.

I’m a day trader so I am short below the OR and right now really enjoy that position, or long above the OR and will take profits early. I am quick to take profits as we rotate inside the Value area as well.

I caution everyone reading this blog who listens to anyone who thinks they know what the market will do. They will claim huge historical successes or that they have been watching the markets for years thus supposedly giving them some insight, or they have written a book or have provided years of commentary.

They don’t have any more of a clue where the market is going to do than the next guy who is looking at a 50 and 200 day MA. In fact it amazes me how some industry professionals who have been on the floor for years and who think they know enough that they can give advice are so clueless.

If they really did know anything they would be traders and not talkers.

Look and listen but draw your own conclusions. If you are reading this post I bet you are smarter than most of the clowns on the floor.

Tim Mack

“Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense.“ - Buddha

What is Joe Six Pack going to do?

Its my opinion that Joe believes the market goes up and the market goes down. And its way too complicated and far too manipulated for him to bother figuring out.

He thinks…..

The stock market gains an average of 10% in value over time.

If he adds a little each paycheck, on the 15th and 30th he is “dollar cost averaging” and he will smooth out the volatility. So just as long as he sticks to the “Plan” his statement will show gains over time. All those investment books saying the same thing must be right….right?

He is not about to freak out on sharp declines by calling his broker and shouting “SELL EVERYTHING”. Why? Because he will leave the market timing to Wall Street. If he wasn’t smart enough to know that going into March 2009 he certainly learned his lesson the rest of the year.

And look at the last decline how it snapped right back. He says: “Those bastard Algo traders! They are manipulating this market. As long as I buy good American companies they will do well. America is the greatest country in the world so it is guaranteed that my stocks in Blue Chip America will always gain value….over time. And I am in it for the long haul…God Bless America”

He then remembers to order that oil pan gasket for that transmission in the bathtub (you need to read Richard Maybury, which I highly recommend, to get that joke)

The problem with Joe is he only knows what he has experienced. He never opened a history book, or if he did, he only read the books provided in public schools which tell a one sided, partial story

Joe experienced 1987. No big deal, the market zoomed off to crazy highs and rewarded those who held stock.

Joe experienced the greatest bull market in history through the 1990’s. Everything goes up especially if its a blue chip.

Joe experienced the pain in dabbling in biotech stocks and dotcoms.

Joe experienced 1999-2003 and then witnessed new highs; It pays to hang tight. Right?

What’s Joe going to do now?….. What’s Joe going to do when we break new lows?

Figure out what Joe is going to do and you can more accurately predict market behavior. This is part of Elliot Wave theory. Bob Prechter had a good description of the emotion that makes up wave 2 and wave 3, what we a probably in now on a very large (but not super cycle but big) degree. I just cant find his quote, but its based on how all humans act and react…pain (fear) and hope (pleasure).

I’m going way out here but…..

Religion is popular because it plays on these two emotions. Very simply put: early on, man (and woman) were fearful of lightning, thunder, wind etc so they prayed. The act of praying triggers relief of the stress of fear. They felt better (pleasure) after praying intently so they kept doing it. Eventually they figured out that the weather was not controlled by Gods and should not be “feared” but should be “understood”. Still, praying offered pleasure (in the way of stress relief) so they switched to praying to a God as we still do today.

This is simply how humans work, like it or not, and understanding how humans work is the key to understanding and predicting how markets works. The markets are made up of Joes (and fund managers). I know several fund managers and more than a few are on par intellectually with Joe.

Joe will eventually feel pain. He will realize that the market stopped going up. He will recall 1999-2003 and 2008-2009, still fresh in his memory. He will look at his 401K statement with performance in brackets. He will long for the feeling of pleasure just seeing a statement that didn’t show a loss. He will feel the pain knowing that his retirement years, as a baby boomer, are close by.

He will then sell. And he will sell everything. It won’t be the big funds, these managers are just trying to stay par with the S&P. They aren’t trying to take big “short” risk to show huge profits. Its more popular to be in bonds then to be “short” when your managing the Teachers Union’s account.

So when will Joe sell?

The market has been looking to break last few days. Today we saw more buy Paper than we saw in a week. So we may not get the break I was expecting on Monday. Still the market is weak and will react violently to any bad news. If terrorist weren’t complete idiots (I am sure glad they are) they would pick now as a time to strike. They would do more damage to the financial markets with a single car bomb in Times Square now than any other time.

Still, if an event created a hard break Joe won’t sell. He hasn’t seen enough losing statements yet. Wave 3 may very likely turn out to be a slow grinding decline as statements show up in the mail and Joe’s pleasure and hope turns to pain and fear.

Just for the record I love America. I have full size replicas of the Declaration of Independence, The Constitution and the Bill of Rights hanging on the walls in my office. I look at them often and wish our political leaders believed in them as much as our founding fathers did. They will again one day………… after a lot of pain.


Tim Mack


"A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned - this is the sum of good government." - Thomas Jefferson

Sellers…..The Story

Paper sold the bell with JPM selling 250 soon after, Swiss banks sells 200 and the story continued. The rally off the open was long locals. They kept the market bid until they found paper buyers on stops near the IB high were they covered. Without the locals on the bid the market went were the market wanted to go. The trend that was in play prior to the holiday counter trend move resumed and we closed well below the open, Fridays settlement, the Value area low and on the lows.

88.50 was last week and the month settlement. This figure will be an important level as we progress through the week and the month.


Tim Mack

"Don't be afraid to give up the good to go for the great." - John D. Rockefeller

Something you should know…..

I thought about starting a blog when I was bored during the dull market action we experienced in March. I needed something constructive to do mid day and I had the energy to share some of my experiences. It’s funny how no sooner that I start posting, the markets started getting range.

While learning to trade I read every bit I could get my hands on. I absorbed some of what fit my personality and discarded the rest. I thought this blog might help others that were interested in learning and willing to do the worked that was necessary.

I don’t promote anyone’s product or service. I only once suggested a book to read but I was not asked to do so nor do I have any affiliation with the author or publisher. Promotion is not the intent of this blog.

If you are interested in learning more please e mail me and I will share with you some resources I found useful but I do not believe it is appropriate to make such recommendations publicly.

I only posted a link to this blog 3 or 4 times in other blogs and it is incredible that this generated such a large following especially in such a short period of time. I guess because I talk about something that is not unique or exclusive, but simply rarely written about in a free format such as a blog; market auction as it is applied to the S&P futures trading.

I live by, and teach my kids, 3 simple rules of life:

1. Don’t take what you didn’t earn or was given to you, don’t steal

2. Don’t hurt people; physically or psychologically.

3. Do what you say/ promise.

In order to be compliant with rule 3 I will tell you that you can listen to a service that will provide commentary of what occurs in the pit in a chat room at Think or Swim™. This is free to anyone who has an account with them or TD Ameritrade™. You can also purchase the service at Tradersaudio.com.

I was fortunate that I was being trained by a bond local at the time I started using this service. I also had the opportunity to stand ring side at the bond, S&P and crude pits observing first hand, for hours at a time, how the markets auctioned between paper and locals. It can be extremely confusing unless you have comprehensive knowledge of what is occurring in the pit and how to interpret this information from chatter to a useful trading tool. You also must listen at all times so you know the position of locals and how aggressive paper has been. It takes a long time to master and there is NO medium that I am aware of that teaches an individual the value of this service and demonstrates daily examples.

This blog is getting a bit more complicated than it was intended. It apparently is not sitting well with some folks who feel the information I disclose is proprietary or exclusive. Instead of looking at this as an opportunity it is viewed as an obstacle. That’s alright because the markets are picking up so I am pretty busy during the day and exhausted at night and I still have my own homework to do. Also the weather is getting nice so I like to spend time biking with the kids when I can. So I may not post as often. However I will try to make the post better quality. I still have a post about the Holy Grail…… It cometh.

There is one trading technique I want to share today. Yesterday the IB closed at 88.75. There should have been a bunch of stops built up above that because of the way we traded there the last few days. We ticked above it and came right back. That means there were no buy stops up there that stopped out weak shorts. If there were, the price would have “zipped” up as the stops turn to market orders and the filling brokers aggressively try to fill the buy orders. Instead there was nothing.

Joey Borsellino got short and started to push the market lower but that isn’t necessary for you to know to sell near the high of the day. All you need to know is how the market works and how to read the price action. I plan to share more of this with you in the future but we will need more rain and less biking.

I would like to thank many of you for all the positive comments. It was very encouraging and motivated me to continue posting even when it was just about the last thing I felt like doing after a highly active trading day.


Tim Mack


“The average person puts only 25% of his energy and ability into his work. The world takes off its hat to those who put in more than 50% of their capacity, and stands on its head for those few and far between souls who devote 100%.” - Andrew Carnegie

Is there a PPT (Plunge Protection Team) ?

There was a Fed mandate after 1987 to set up a team of some sort to prevent chaos in a collapsing market. I read details on their responsibility a long time ago, can’t remember where. After witnessing first hand tick by tick several very severe breaks l can tell you that they are not present when the markets are crashing hard, and if they are, they are powerless to do anything about it.

The Fed usually does everything wrong anyway and trying to prop up the market wont be any different. Winston Churchill said it well when he said; “ Americans always do the right thing after they tried everything else first”. That’s because our government employees are not as smart as we hope they would be. I realized this even more so when I learned that Alan Greenspan called up Leo Melamed and asked him what he should do the night of the 1987 cash. Ummm… Alan was the Fed chairman managing the Federal Reserve of the wealthiest country in history; Leo was just managing the CME.

Well maybe they aren’t as dumb as I think and If that’s true then the PPT was in action today. The markets were set to break further. When we open gap lower so far from Value and below my proprietary range the markets tend to continue selling off sharply. It can rally off the bell but within the first hour (IB) and often within the first ½ hour, the market will peak and sell off straight through the opening range. The rally never fills the gap and the gap traders start puking adding to the sell off. Alternatively, the markets will sell off sharply right off the bell. The market may up tick the OR a bit but only briefly before breaking.

We didn’t get that sell off. In fact, after a quick test below the OR we found support at the opening range high and never looked back. Locals got short several times during the day but couldn’t get the market to break yet there was no huge stand out paper buying. This might be a sign that someone, with a huge bank role of.. umm the Fed, stepping in any buying the market. Maybe they saw the strong sell off yesterday and the sell off on Globex this morning and decided this would be a good time to step in prop the market. That wouldn’t be so dumb.

I still have a hard time believing this, I just don’t see a PPT organization run by the Fed doing anything right although they probably outsource the whole thing to Goldman and its their technicians that are trading the Fed account. That I might buy. Even still no market can be manipulated and if this IS the case we will be retracing the strong rally today at some point. If this was buyers stepping because they felt the market was below value then we should open and hold 79.00-81.00 tomorrow.

Regardless, as long as you disregard the “who” and “why” and only trade the “what” as in “what is happening to price in relation to the OR”, you will be on the right side of the market. The locals were a great tell too. If anyone is going to be effective manipulating the S&P’s intra day its going to be the locals. They are masters at it and when they cant get their way bulling the market lower you know you have a strong market on your hands and you want to be with that force.

May the force be with you.

Tim Mack


“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” - Henry Ford

Careful out there

Careful out there traders. We will be opening well below yesterdays Value Area low of 79.50 and a proprietary range low of 58.25. This means the sentiment of yesterday changed significantly to the downside.

Keep this handy, you might need it:

Daily Price Limits RTH: Successive 10%, 20%, 30% limits (downside only)

Yesterdays settle was 1071.00. You may want to book mark this link;

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-sandp500_quotes_settlements_futures.html


Tim Mack

The secret of the Holy Grail Cometh

The market found value between 1090 and 1075 today. That’s not a bullish tone. Ideally for the bulls we should have retraced part of Fridays Raging Rally and traded above Fridays high by 3 handles to find higher Value. If so we would then make it back to 1105 area for a test. Now its wait and see how this market opens and trades in relation to this range. It could go either way because we stayed within Fridays Value Area so really there has been no change to the sentiment of Friday. Still we are closing far enough below the OR low that my guess is for lower prices.

There was very little paper today, mostly buy side this morning and sell side near the cash close. I have to jet this evening so I will keep this post short But I did spend some time drafting a post about the Holy Grail, I just don’t have time to finish it up today. If these dull markets keep up I can post commentary but my guess (and my hope) is that we will see lots of excitement in the very near future and lazy days like today that gives me a chance to write will become less frequent.

Tim Mack

And They’re Off!!!!

Straight up 28 handles right out of the gate. Paper sellers on the bell, locals long and the market just went straight up with little effort by the locals. A big Paper buyer came in at 65.00-64.00, locals found their buyer, and the market just kept going. The May 6 crash low was 1056.00 in the mini and 1060.00 in the bigs.

We tested this low on the bell at 1051.25 in the mini and 1051.50 in the bigs. A huge rejection of that tested low caused the rally. That can set a great double bottom and we can be off to new highs……..unless we retest that low again. Typically a 2.5-3 handle “test and reject” can set the tone for a change is trend and we would then consider the action since the end of April as a correction of the bull market since March of ’08. We went a little deeper than the 2.5-3 handles but that could be chalked up to the increases in volatility.

However, in my opinion we are at a critical point. I would have preferred not to see and move back into the range of the crash which would suggest that it was an anomaly meaning prices would never return to find Value at that level. But they did, and that’s not bullish. If it wasn’t for the fact that we rejected that low so vigorously Friday I would say tighten your helmet straps cuz is going to be a long 2-3 rear ride down the Slope of Hope.

Meaning if we head to the 65-00- 52.00 area and rotate, finding Value, there is a good chance that the decline will continue.

If so this offers traders a rare opportunity. Declines can be sharp and fast. Elliott Waver’s are calling for a 3rd of a 3rd wave which occurs when EVERYONE heads for the exit and the door opening cant handle it. This would be caused by the baby boomers who are heading toward retirement and they cant stomach their 401K statements shrinking as they witnessed in 2000-2003 and 2007-2008. Those memories are too fresh and they are too close to needing that investment. Add some car bombs in Times Square and elsewhere (this I am afraid isn’t a matter of “if.. its simply “when”) and more bank failures (this too is a when, ) and we can have lots of panic on our hands.

If we do head up from here and the Vix remains high we will continue to have 10 handle intra day swings so either way we should have some great near term opportunities….cant wait

Tim Mack




“If you are going through hell, keep going.” - Winston Churchill

Locals a.k.a Outliers

There is a book worth reading by Malcolm Gladwell called Outliers. The premise of the book is that if you are smart, lucky and hardworking you will be highly successful. The luckier you are the more successful you will be.

Bill Gates and Paul Allen were more lucky than anything else. So were the Beatles.

Bill and Paul found themselves as two 16 year old nerdy geeks who had the very rare access to a computer that they could program. At the time, it was unheard of to have access to a computer even for university students but they found themselves with the opportunity to play all night. While most kids were sneaking cigarettes and peaking at Playboy, they were in a computer lab writing software.

When they came across an opportunity to apply their skill they had logged 10,000 hours of screen time. They were smart and hardworking and took advantage of every opportunity but more importantly….. they were lucky.

The Beatles started out smart and talented but they had more luck than talent. One of their first gigs was to play at a German strip club 6 days a week for 8 hours at a time. These kids were talented enough to be offered the job and smart enough to take it. Well…. I’m not too sure how much intelligence that decision took. They were young kids with a chance to drink beer and sing to naked women for 8 hours a day. Not a whole lot of smarts were needed to make that decision….

What happened though is that all that stage time gave them the practice they needed to become a great band. By the time they played Shea stadium they had 10,000 hours of stage time.

You can still be successful without as much luck as Bill, Paul and the Beatles had. You just might not get to their level. But if you don’t put in the 10,000 hours of hard work you will never make it.

Most wannabe traders blow out and give up long before they log the hours needed. But once you make it past the required time, which is a feat in itself, you have a great chance of being successful.


Most of the locals in the pit have well over the 10,000 hours of hard work needed to be successful. They are also smart. More street smart in the S&P pit, more book smart in the options pit but smart nonetheless.

They are also lucky. There are not a whole lot of traders in this world that have the opportunity to “make the market” in the largest equity futures pit in the world. Oh sure, with enough money you can buy a seat and open a margin account, read the rule book and trade in the pit. But you won’t last long.

The lucky ones worked as runners and were smart enough to pay attention. Others had a dad or brother who showed them “how things worked”. That cut down on a lot of hours needed to learn the game. Its important that the teacher is a relative. You won’t doubt what a relative tells you. Lacking a relative, its up to you to learn a little here, learn a little there and spend 10,000 hours watching ticks on a screen.

Most wannabe traders don’t want to do the work. They want someone to tell them all there is to know. The problem with that is they never gain the confidence needed to be successful. They also tout themselves as heroes when the trade works well and blame others when it fails.

Trading is all about confidence. Locals can get run over time and time again and still take the next trade because they have the confidence knowing that they will end the day green and if not, they will get it back tomorrow.

We saw a lot of down side activity today. All houses sold size off the open and locals were long. We opened well below yesterdays opening range, Value Area low and my propriety range. This is bearish and the houses thought so too. The locals simply took the other side as they usually do and made a best effort to bid the market up hoping to attract buyers. Failing to find buyers they wasted no time reversing and we had a great break of 10 handles below the OR (Opening Range). Locals found bids on the low and joined in rallying the market back up to the OR but a sellers market wont make if far above the OR and back down we go test the IB low, back up to the OR and eventually a test above. Its noteworthy that we completely failed to find buyers above the OR and sold off hard. Tomorrow is options expiration so we may see some continued volatility as lots of puts will expire in the money….cant wait.


Tim Mack


"I find the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have" - Thomas Jefferson

????

Paper buyers came in strong off the bell. The locals were short and got run over. They reversed and got long adding to the straight up 10 handle rally. We hit 1122 and I think the whole world got short. I was expecting the OR to hold due to the aggressive Paper buyers off the open but we plowed right through after a test.

When we rally 10-12 straight handles such a move will exhaust the buyers. Nobody wants to buy the high after 10 handles. The bulls will wait for a pull back if they want to get long or add to a position. The problem with that is that the locals are short in a breaking market so they will scoop up any buyer who comes in above the OR. They will be more cautious around the OR but if they can muscle it through they will continue selling to any Paper buyer. And why not, they are short, green and the market is going their way. In my opinion it’s the way to make the big money. Some traders will put on their full position and scale out taking profits along the way. I prefer to add on to winning trades and quickly scratch or cover a loser. Both ways can work, its just your style and goals that drive how you manage a position.


Its noteworthy that the market rallied 9 handles above the OR high and found a top then sold off to 9 handles below the OR low. This symmetry occurs often. Its always a place to look for support or resistance when we cross through the OR. After rallying to the OR we sold off and made a solid low 1099. Then back to the OR to chop around. It’s a bit puzzling because we sold off pretty well, really chopped around this OR all afternoon, was down all day from yesterday’s settle but the Arms was rather bullish settling at .52. Options expire Friday so maybe their will be some games played. We have been down most Fridays since the first of the year and May 20th (Thursday) should be an important pivot date so I have a lot of mixed signals right now.

Nevertheless because of how we rotated around the OR 13.75-12.50 I believe how we open against this range will set the mornings activity after that and beyond the first hour trade (Initial Balance period) its anybody’s call. Still feeling bearish as long as we are under the 8 MA VA at 43.25



Tim Mack


“Play the game for more than you can afford to lose... only then will you learn the game.” - Winston Churchill

Lacking Paper Sellers

That was the story today. It was just a slow grind lower on with the occasional scaled down Paper buyer who loaded the locals short. I was expecting a decent rally after finding support from the Value Area High 34.75 which would then continue yesterdays late day reversal. However once we crossed back through the low of 33.00 (within the wiggle room of the VA) there was no looking back, just a continued slow grind trend day. The locals didn’t have to work to push the market lower. This is a clear indication of a trend day, no stand out Paper either way but the market just wants to drift lower.

Trend days can chew up traders who like to pick bottoms (or tops in up trends). Few can do it successfully. Paul Tudor Jones liked to pick tops and bottoms. He was mostly picking bottoms in a bull market and made a fortune. It would take him a few tries before he found the true bottom and being a brilliant trader trained by a brilliant trader also helped. I have watched traders lose fortunes trying to pick tops and bottoms. After witnessing the carnage I learned quickly that I would rather go with the flow and have all the momentum of the markets at my back than try to fight it.

We closed at 1118.25 which is below today’s OR, yesterdays OR and come to think of it….. all the OR’s from last week. That’s not a sign of a healthy market.

My wife is a fan of the television show Greys Anatomy, I’m more the Scrubs type but rarely ever watch it. But on the even rarer occasion that my wife and I are in the same room, the TV is on and she has control of the remote, its Greys that’s on the tube. I never dreamed of being a doctor and after watching Greys it is the furthest thing from my mind.

However, sometimes when I get deep in to the zone, I think of the market as a patient laying on an operating table with all the monitors hooked up. The up ticks and down ticks of the bonds, gold, crude, and index futures are the scales on the instruments. As the market ticks past the OR, then the Value Areas high, then low, then the IB, the patient slowly dies, occasionally coming to life and gasping for air after hitting the support of a Value Area or old OR but then falling back into a comatose state and a slow death. Morbid I know, what’s even more morbid is while the patient is dying I’m short, making money and loving it.

We have Fed meeting minutes tomorrow at 2:00ET and unless they announce that they plan to go “negative” next meeting, I don’t see much happening to the upside. There is a chance that we are putting in a double bottom to yesterdays low of 1112.75. That print sure spoke “leg bottom” at the time, which is another reason that I was looking for more upside today. Taking out that low by more than 3 handles and we can say "good night Gracie".


Tim Mack


"Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense." - Buddha

Family First

Family matters are keeping me extra busy, I will be back to posting regularly soon.


"Continuous effort - not strength or intelligence - is the key to unlocking our potential." - Winston Churchill

Market Profile Value Areas

As defined by Dalton and Jones in the book Mind over Markets: “The area where 70% of the day’s business is conducted”

Based on yesterdays trading 70% of the volume traded between 1169.50 and 1162.50. When markets are “orderly” these Value Areas are an important gauge of the market. When the market is trading inside the area on the following day, the sentiment that created this area (or range) hasn’t changed. The market simply rotates from one side to the other. Lacking any other time frame traders stepping in, either long or short, the market will simply continue to rotate. In other words, both buyers and sellers found value in this range.

When you have a “disorderly market” like last Thursday, you get a huge Value Area like 57.75 handles!! as compared to a typical market like yesterday where the Value Area was 7 handles. Huge Value Area days wreak havoc on my 8 day moving average and using the Value Area high or Value Area low as support or resistance is worthless.

Today however was a good example of the “value” of the Value Area that is created in a typical trading day. The market opened up inside the Value Area at 66.50 with aggressive Paper sellers. Locals had “attitude” and bought every scrap. The market traded down to 61.75 as the locals were loading up on aggressive selling. The low was just a few ticks from the Value Area low.

Locals were long and initial Paper sellers were done. Without another wave of heavy Paper sellers the market, in the hands of the locals on the bid and the natural rotation back through the Value Area range, rallied. More Paper sellers came in one at a time and with rising prices the locals kept buying. The locals will add to their position and absorb the Paper selling as long as the prices are rising and its one house (one trader), at a time. They will cover and reverse if the next wave of Paper selling is from several houses. If several houses all start selling this means traders in different areas of the world are all seeing the same thing and betting on (in this case) lower prices. Value Areas won’t hold when these traders who are thinking on a longer term basis, believe prices are too high (or low).

The price traded up to and through the Value Area high by 2.5 handles. This didn’t attract the buyers the locals were looking for to lay off their longs. This market wanted to trade lower and once the afternoon session kicked in that’s exactly what it did trading right through the Value Area low of 1162.50 and even yesterdays OR.

The Vix at 26.82 suggests continued volatility so based on this afternoon’s action I am looking for some more downside activity. It will probably all come overnight while I’m dreaming about cold beer, warm beaches and hot bikinis.


Tim Mack

More Big Buyers

Another day of big buying, JPM bought 1000 cars aggressively within the first few minutes of trade. Goldman joined in, Solly, even the perma bear Swiss is now a buyer.

The locals were size short from selling to Paper … and here comes Joey…..

Joey stepped into the pit at 9:50 ET and started showing bid. Joey picks his moments carefully. The whole pit was size short and he knew it. He also knows the market wants to go up. He fights the whole pit and he has the skill and margin account to do it.

He lifted every offer in sight. Most of the time the other locals will just put their hands down and let him just bid or offer the market to see which way the market trades. But Joey was long and on a mission. He pushed the market higher and I don’t think he had a tough time doing it because the market was bullish anyway. He wasn’t fighting the market he was just fighting the locals in the pit. The locals didn’t put up much of a fight. They saw a bullish market and once we started trading above the opening range they puked.

Every time big buyers came in in what looked like capitulation, the locals got short but the market just rallied back up. Joey had a good day but most of the locals went home down to kiss the dog and kick the wife.

I have seen many times after the locals go home down for the day, the next day is quite volatile. They step in the pit with attitude, wanting to make their money back. They usually do and I will be right in step with them. Cant wait…


We continue to create higher value and big Paper keeps buying aggressively. I think they hope its another 1987 but its 2010………


Tim Mack

Some days it doesn’t pay to be a local, most days it does.

Paper buyers came in aggressively out of the gate and locals sold. Locals were stuck and they did everything they could to push the market lower. Then at 10:30 ET the big gun stepped in to the ring, Joey B. As I have said it is great when he is on a mission because if he gets his way he can move the market to the point that if enough sellers step in the longer time frame traders will start selling too. If he cant get his way then you know there is some good up side potential. I am always watching closely when he is on a mission.

Today, Joey’s mission failed and that was bad news for the locals that were short and continued to get short off the open. The market was so strong that these guys (and gal) couldn’t even push down to near the OR much less the top. They held those short 10 handles before puking and reversing.

The market topped out at 1169.0 with a push high on a size buyer. Locals flattened up but were not heavy short. It was one local who started aggressively pushing lower around 1167. He simply recognized the top and got short so I don’t see that it was a false move like Joey often does. Joey will fight the trend and when he is done, if the market doesn’t accept the level as value, the market will sometimes snap back in like a rubber band. This local just saw a change in trend and got on board. Locals stayed short until 1152. I wish I covered there too.

I’m not sure what to make of things here. I was expecting a pull back off the months of a steady creeping market then off to new highs into June - August but last Thursday was a little bit more than a pull back. Is “Sell in May and go away” in gear this year?

I think the break last week scared a lot of investors. Moms and Pops who still have 2008 fresh in their minds and want to preserve whatever is left in their retirement accounts may be calling up their mutual funds and moving out of equities.

I ask - has the Continuity of Thought changed?

My Value Area moving average was at 66.75 today. The market didn’t hold it so overall it is still bearish. Although we did close above the OR we could not settle above the Value area high of 56.75 or the IB high of 54.50. If we open below 44.25 tomorrow I will look for continued selling and it might just get very very interesting…cant wait!

Tim Mack

The Battle of the Titans

I was looking for a rally to retrace the major move from last week but I didn’t expect it to happen with 51 handles BEFORE the market opens.

Wow. I never saw that before.

Sooner or later we will fill that gap and then new lows. A double bottom before the double top or a double top first is yet to be determined but the Titans are battling it out right now.

But before we get in to today’s action you may want to take note of the lock limits for the ES. I have the limits down on my work sheet but I never thought I would need limits up! There is a 5% lock limit up on overnight trading that is released on the bell. We came within 3 ticks of that this morning which also happens to be right at a great 1 tick setup but if you are wrong and the market trades to the limit you’re sitting on a short trade that’s lock limit up. That is a place I never ever want to be regardless of the potential reward.


Daily Price Limits RTH: Successive 10%, 20%, 30% limits (downside only)
ETH (overnight): 5% up or down


There are several houses that are standout players. Goldman has always been one of them. They have the best analysts and the wealthiest clients. Other standout players come and go but recently Swiss bank has been very active. If you recall me mentioning they have been very aggressive to the downside before the crash.


This morning we had very aggressive buyers off the bell. Goldman kept buying totaling 1000 cars in the first 5 minutes. Then JP came in buying 600 cars at 9:43. This was the last of the aggressive buying and the high of the day. The locals were size short as they didn’t lay anything off in the mini that I could tell. After a little local push- here comes Swiss. They sold and sold size and continued to do so which completed the IB.

No other stand out sellers came in, just Swiss, and after a test of the IB we rallied up but couldn’t take out the high so back down to test the low. With the Titans done taking their position we just auctioned around creating Value. The pit was packed most of the day as locals were expecting heavy trading that didn’t materialize. We did rally enough late day to settle above the OR but not enough to say we should seek more upside.

The Vix is in a good spot for active trading above 17 suggesting volatility but below 33- the “chaos level”. Breadth was pegged to the upside all day suggesting a pull back or resumption on Turn around Tuesday. Tick is rising suggesting continued up side and Arms is at a calming .64

I am still looking for more downside activity to test the low but I sure would like to know what Goldman is thinking right now. Regardless I will be long above and short below. Cant wait…….


Tim Mack

My Apologies

I published a post earlier today regarding some traders that had a really bad day yesterday. Apparently some of those traders read my posts. It was unfair of me to publish anything negative about other traders. This business is just way too difficult to be successful in to have anyone making negative comments about them. I could easily be in their shoes tomorrow and I wouldn’t want anyone bringing that to the worlds attention.

Also the comment did not bring any value to other traders which is my intention of this blog. I deleted the post and again, I apologize to those traders I referenced and offended.

Tim Mack

Billions lost, Millions made

Today is one for the record books, In fact I have witnessed several free fall markets but not like this.

All houses were buyers off the open, locals were stuck and puked some but held their core short position. At the test of the OR at 10:30 ET is when the Paper selling started coming in heavy with 400 contacts on the sell side. Once we broke and held the OR there was continued weakness in all the markets. The breath printed the lowest reading I have seen in a very long time which was indicative of the day. Paper sold steady through out the day with only 2 meaningful buyers, Goldman, buying 250 cars at 51.00 and Swiss buying 200 at 44.50 at 1:25 ET. With short locals and a weakening broad market there was only one way to go and heavy paper selling came in as traders realized we were in for a sharp drop.

But NOBODY expected the drop we got.

There was an offer at 1128 for 200 cars. The locals didn’t want them. We were selling off all day and they saw more downside a head so they didn’t want to get long. Once we traded below 1120 the “Fast Market” started.

A fast market is when trading happens so fast the brokers are not obligated to give the best bid as fills on sell orders to their clients. That’s because the market moves so fast there could be at 1120 bid on one side of the pit and a 1118 bid on the other side at the same time. If a customer is filled at 1118 instead of 1120 he cant claim it was a bad fill.

However, as I had mentioned in an earlier post there are few occasions that there are NO bids, I mean none. Not one. As I said there where only two paper buyers and the locals wanted nothing to do with getting long in front of the freight train that was bearing down the tracks. No Paper buying and no locals buying mean no bids

Well at around 1120 something happened. Rumors say it was a fat finger bad tick of P&G or a large sell order in the e mini that was fat fingered to a huge sell order. What ever the reason, Paper sellers came in so fast, so aggressive that I thought there was a major terrorist attack or Israel nuked Iran.

I have never ever seen no bids for 60 handles!! Followed by no offers for 60 handles!! The locals just put their arms down. Remember these guys have lived through 1987, 9/11 Lehman, surprise Fed rate hikes.

One filling broker said he had a sell order for 18 cars at 1100, a sell stop no less. It was filled at 1060. There were no paper buyers to sell to and the locals simply didn’t want them until 1060. That was the first bit of paper that the locals started buying. Can you imagine the trader who had a protective stop (which was likely placed because of a loss of the trade already) and he doesn’t get filled after $180,000 further loss!!! That was just that one order and there were thousands of contracts. Not to mention all the other stops on all the other futures, stocks and options that didn’t get filled until it was too late. A lot of traders blew their accounts out today. A LOT! It will be a different market tomorrow with a lot less players due to liquidated accounts.

The locals started buying the paper offers at 60. After they bought all the paper offers there were no more offers in the pit. All traders around the world were trying to figure out what had just happened. Once traders saw the futures starting to rise buyers stepped in on the screen but there were no Paper buyers in the pit until we retraced 60 handles. We don’t see 120 handle moves in a month and we saw it in 10 minutes. An amazing day.

I have no clue what tomorrow will bring but I know a lot of traders who were trying to pick the bottom all day long wont be around anymore.

My rule to be short below the OR, long above served me well today. I think I will take tomorrow off……….. probably not.


Tim Mack

Continued Paper Selling

Today was a bit uneventful, heavy paper selling came in off the open and the locals joined in. Paper quieted down and locals found a bunch of stops at 57.75 so that they were able to cover their shorts and get long. They met some paper selling on the way up which they absorbed and kept the bid going until paper buyers came in above the IB.

I expected the market to sell off after a test of the IB high but buyers came in. The market is in a difficult spot to read. There is a bearish wedge building but we closed above the OR. I think the market may need to rest a bit until it starts another major move which as long as 77.00 holds should be down. Nevertheless wild horses couldn’t get me short above the OR. before the IB is complete.

Tim Mack

Offered off the open – Joey is back at his old tricks

Two hands raised palms out right off the bell.

There are several ranges I look at before the open. The value area which was 1202.00 – 1192.00, a proprietary range which was 1206.00 - 1191.00, the prior days RTH range 1202- 1187.

When the market opens above or below all these ranges you can bet that the sentiment of the prior day changed overnight. In other words, don’t expect the same mindset that created the value areas and most of the prior days range to continue. If it continues you would likely see a rotation back to at least the middle of the range before other time frame players stepped in and started to move the market in one direction or the other. This morning those “other time frame” players had already stepped in as sellers (and lack of buyers) and that is why the markets were already trading lower. This case may be more prevalent now that European traders are actively trading the e mini (either arbing or outright) and much younger traders than I are getting up early (or stay up late, or don’t sleep at all). I need me beauty sleep.


Joey’s back to his ‘ol tricks

The markets sold off with paper sellers and short locals to 77.00 which was an important support area as it was a single print from April 8 and support from April 28. Although there weren’t any paper buyers stepping in, there was some size buying on the screen. The whole pit was short and why not, they hadn’t felt a bottom and they needed more Paper sellers to buy from to cover. Joey sees this and he comes in bid fighting the whole pit. He was aggressive on the bid using the size screen buyers to hopefully gain momentum. Those buyers, after they came in at 77.00, didn’t follow through. If you don’t believe 1 guy can move the market look at prices from 10:06- 10:26 ET. This 3 handle move is “Joey and crew” manipulating the market by bidding up the market and selling 1 lots for prints. But you can only manipulate the market for so long. This is why the “Plunge Protection Team” is a bunch of crap. Not even the Fed is big enough to manipulate the markets. And if there was a PPT where were they in ’08? Oh right - it’s a Fed program so it worked as well as all the other Fed programs.

The OR held and the weight of the selling pressure came in and that was all she wrote…….

I think we may have found an import bottom at the 64.00 area. The locals got short and aggressively offered the price lower starting at +/- 69.00 at 3:36 ET. They pushed into the low print at 64.25 where they found ONLY stops and bought the low. The whole rise from 64.25 to 73.0 were locals on the bid and lack of Paper. Lets see you do that electronically - good luck. I am not saying that they always get their way, they get run over like the rest of us but the locals have the master ability to manipulate the market when the opportunity presents itself and they are experts at recognizing those opportunities.

If we open above +/-64.00 we should see higher prices. If 64.00 doesn’t hold then we have something else on our hands and warrants a very careful evaluation.

Tim Mack

He’s Back…..

Joey Borsellino was back in the pit today. It’s great to have him back as his trading is a terrific gauge of the market. Joey and his brother Lewy started in the gold pit and moved to the S&P when it first opened. Lewy is no longer a local …umm… I heard his style of trading did not sit well with the compliance department.

However, his brother Joey is still hanging in there. He was in Italy, Naples (where my ancestors are from) for 3 weeks and then was on and off the floor for the last week or two but never traded in the pit. Joey is a very aggressive trader. He likes to push the market often selling through the bid on an aggressive push lower. Sometimes he gets his way and sometimes he doesn’t. What’s great is that he falsely moves the market. In other words he is not part of the market auction process where bidders and sellers decide on price. He is a market bully. That’s just fine with me because when he is getting his way he paves a way for the path of least resistance and I have a better understanding of where the market is heading. Often the market will bounce back like a rubber band once he is done with his aggressive pushing. Today he came in aggressive and was able to muscle the market lower but as soon as he let off the gas the market came right back. This is when I know the market wants higher prices which is exactly what we got for the first Monday of a month.

Paper buyers came in off the open and came back soon after. When the locals see all the houses with two hands in the air - palms facing in, they know that this is a battle they should join and not fight, not on the first Monday of the month. They jumped on the bid as well and up we went. Joey was part of the push that came in after the IB was formed but once we saw that the move wasn’t getting any steam there was only one other way the market was headed - up.

I am still thinking lower prices but I will simply drift with the wind and go along for the ride.



Tim Mack

Only The Local Knows……

Friday morning I read a number commentaries from highly respected technicians of which most of them called for higher prices. These market opinions came from analysts who have decades of experience and long track records of accurate market calls. Some called for lower prices off the open but most called for high prices into the close in spite of the typical last day of the month afternoon sell off. And why not, we closed on a bullish note on Thursday.

Apparently many other traders who have some sizable accounts were thinking the same thing as these analysts and they picked 1202-1203 area to stake their claim. Paper buyers came in off the open but the real buying came in fast and furious about 10 minutes off the bell as we traded within the OR at 02.00-03.00. Everyone bought! And they bought size! Swiss Bank, who has been unusually active lately, bought 300 cars at 02.00 and another 100 at 02.80 and another 200 at 3.00. This is aggressive buying. Usually big money traders have an opinion about the direction of the market and when they want to add to a position they will patiently wait until the market pulls back so they can buy cheap. This is known as other time frame players stepping in as buyers when prices are trading below value or at bargain prices. However, when these players get aggressive to the point that they are not willing to wait then they just lift the offers in the pit.

In addition to Swiss, the old Solomon desk, (now Barclays or was that Lehman, I can’t keep track?) bought, Goldman bought, First Boston bought, Merrill sold. When all the big houses buy (and Merrill sells) it’s a good sign that we will see higher prices as the Gurus predicted. They were buying before the PMI number at 9:45 ET, (released early to subscribers which I imagine all these houses are). So my guess is that they thought the numbers would be good and the market would continue on its irrational exuberance.

The locals had a different idea. You see they were big time short. So short that they did have to lighten up their shorts by laying off some in the mini but they stayed short. When no big Paper buying came in after the positive number they held their shorts. What was interesting through is that they were so loaded up that they continued to hold short even after prices broke to the 94 area, They will usually cover and call it a good pay day, especially on a Friday when "happy hour" starts at noon.

You can see how they held offer from 10:50 – 12:00ET. Other traders left for lunch, (the ones that get paid by the clock and not the contract) which gave the locals the opportunity to start getting their way. Once they begin pushing lower and the outside world starts seeing lower prints they begin to change their bullish minds. The sell stops they hit along the way just adds fuel to the fire and soon the traders who were sitting on the sidelines start joining the party. These are the trades who thought the market was over bought and were seeking an opportunity to join a sell off. Last day of the month also adds fuel especially when trading below the prior week close. The fund manager’s start thinking they need to save their gain (actually cut their losses) and start covering their longs especially when they realize that we are trading below the close of ALL the weekly closes of April.

The key here is not to have a firm bias going in to the trading day. Fortunately I can read these analysts opinion and know, like any business consultant you deal with, 50% of what they tell you is crap. Your job is to figure out which 50% has value.

For next week I am planning on more downside activity although I am not convinced ..yet… that this is a major trend change as I don’t see a change in the “Continuity of Thought”. All that means is that I will hold my shorts a little longer and take gains early on longs but I will eagerly take the long if the market gives me that opportunity…regardless of all the bearishness I will now be reading from the Gurus …

……as an added note.. Merrill was big time right!!, who would have thought? You see in this game you can never tell who will be right and who will be wrong except the market ....which is always right.

“Go with the Flow and Take Advantage of the Moment” - Leo Melamed

Tim Mack

Playing video games really does pay

Here is a picture of the S&P pit area at the ol’ Merc location. You see traders sitting along the ring with headsets to locals in the pit. The window to the visitor gallery is along the back wall. The yellow jackets are clerks and the colored jackets are traders. The guy in front has controller in his hand like you would find with an X Box. I guess there is something to putting in 10,000 hours of playing Grand Theft Auto. There are a group of locals who play for “Nickles”. They will buy 10 Bigs at 1206.20 and sell 50 minis at 1206.25 picking off $125 at a clip. Do that 50-100 times a day and you can eke out a decent living for two guys. Keep in mind that with a seat you have nominal clearing fees that, once you reach a certain monthly volume like theses guys do, then the trades are free.

The Dog Lives

Gap traders having a bad day, aggressive buyers came in and you can see that the locals attempted to get prices offered below the OR but couldn't, the market is too strong here at least until another EU credit downgrade.... Lots of support at 99.5 and of course 96.75-96

Pre Market

We traded up overnight to 98.50-97.50 resistance area. If we open below we will probably rotate back toward the Settlement of 90.00 and the Value area high of 89.75. What often happens is that Paper buyers come in off the bell and locals get short. If no other buyers step in the locals will offer the market lower and get all the gap fill traders on their side. This is were trading gets tough and the importance on knowing what the market is doing makes the difference in a winning day or a losing day. Gap fill traders say if we open “X” handles above the settlement then we will go back at least ½ way. There is a trader who call this set up a “burning dog” (sick I know) and uses 4 handles as “X” .

The difference is that if Paper buyers come in aggressively after the open the locals will scratch their shorts and get long with them “going with the flow” leaving all those gap fill traders with a bad day and saving that poor little dog.

Tim Mack

Spain vs California

News of Spain’s credit down grade caused a sharp decline in the market that was quickly shrugged off.

The EU is in big trouble. Not just because of Greece and Spain’s credit issues. These issues should be no surprise in recessionary economies just like California’s credit problems are no surprise during every US recession.

The difference is that when California gets in trouble, Virginia (just to pick a state) will always step up to the plate and bail them out. Maybe at the very last second but we wont let them go down. Why? Because we are the UNITED States. Always have been, always will be (much to Texas chagrin).

However when Spain, Greece and all the others that will soon follow get in trouble I don’t think Germany and the Netherlands are as willing to step up to the plate and save the day.

There is a lot to be said about the loyalty and compassion that Americans feel toward one another. I have traveled extensively through Europe and I am certain that they will not even come close to the great lengths that Americans will extend and endure to help our own citizens. We have a unique compassion for our fellow citizens. We mean it when we say it; “United we stand, divided we fall.” (well maybe except for Texas).

We hold truth and honor in extreme high regard. This is why a trader standing in the pit can sell $60 million in securities with a nod of the head and know the order will be a solid as a rock no matter what the price does at the next trade. This is why we can’t win in Iraq and Afghanistan because we can’t understand how other cultures could not respect these values. They seem logical to us, but foolish to others. Let them keep their values and do as they please. We will keep ours and live and die united by them.

(Tim steps off his soap box)

Tim Mack

Wrap up FMOC day

Locals were short off the bell from selling to Paper buyers. They took a little heat but eventually were able to break the OR and sell it down to the VA low. After a bounce off the OR high I thought we might catch a nice sell off but they couldn’t make a new low and the market rallied to 89.50. Locals were long going into the news and prices broke 5 handles in a nanosecond. It was a fairly short recovery which is a bullish sign. The usual upward drift occurred until the Fed news but all that produced were paper sellers. Locals were buyers but had a tough time holding bid and the market started selling off. If it wasn’t for the short covering rally at the end of the day I would expect lower prices going in tomorrow. However we closed far enough above 85.50 that as long as we hold this price on the open we should see higher prices tomorrow. With a Vix close at 21.08 we can look for daily ranges to expand.

Tim Mack

Wrap up

Is the sky falling maybe but probably not. On days like today I like to look at two charts for a bigger picture. The NYA - NYSE composite and SPWY - Equal Weighted S&P. We put in an outside week in the NYA and reacted off a 160 week sma which could be a major reversal sign but the SPWY is still inside and hasn’t even touched its 8 ema. Both would have to start closing under the 8 ema before we start thinking the bear is back. The market still has an appetite for risk as it is still preferring High Yield bonds to Treasuries so we are likely in a pull back here and not a major reversal.

But you couldn’t tell that by the action of Paper in the pit. Paper sold heavily off the bell and as usual the locals scooped them up. They come into the pit flat each day so regardless of what happed yesterday they are likely to take the other side of the trade off the open so that they get a position on.

If they see the market is too heavy to one side they are quick to reverse and go with the flow (well most of them but some are very suborn). Today, the sell paper stopped soon after the open. Most expected a quiet day waiting for the Fed tomorrow and listening to Goldman testimony. The locals struggled to hold the bid but they are master day traders and market manipulators. The OR held after two tests, one of the lower range and one of the upper. It was a creeper but the locals were long and getting paid. As we all know by now the longer the locals can hold bid above the OR the more likely buy Paper will start coming in. It did and the locals kept laying off in the mini and holding their longs.

They were probably looking at the same target I was which was 11.25. However the market started to roll over at 1208, yesterdays settle. They tried to hold bid but couldn’t and the market rolled over them as well. Once the price traded back to the open they scratched whatever was left and started getting short. Apparently the Greeks didn’t send enough Ouzo because their bonds were down graded to junk and the markets sold off heavily. Paper sellers were aggressive with Swiss bank leading the pack. Chicago Corporation was the biggest winner selling 3000 cars through the afternoon.

Lets see what tomorrow brings. Recent Fed days have been uneventful but we have a Vix close at 22.81!!! If the pit is packed tomorrow on the bell I think we can expect an exciting morning session at least. Cant wait!


Tim Mack

Support and Resistance – a Numbers Game

Usually, the S/R numbers I have on my daily worksheet work. In a breaking market, like todays, the market will at least stall at my support levels. It's a good idea to learn to trust your numbers and when they fail, know the market is headed to the next level. When that happens I interpret it as there is more conviction in the direct it is headed to take it to the next area.

My S/R levels come from deviations of the settlement price, Value areas and intraday ranges,weekly highs, lows and deviations.

S/R numbers aren’t meant to be hard figures. Especially when you have a huge stadium filled with unpredictable traders like there is in the S & P. Your S/R numbers should be considered as “Areas to do Business” and its how the market reacts at these levels that should trigger your trade. I use the position of locals and the aggressiveness (or lack thereof) of Paper trading around these numbers to tell me that we are changing direction at a level.

But I have to tell ya, I didn’t have a darn thing at 83.5. Nope not a thing. But Swiss Bank sure did because they came in aggressive and relentless buyers. The locals saw this too as well as other bids coming into the pit. As they sold to Swiss they flipped them in the mini so they wouldn’t get stuck short. They knew the market was done (at that time) going down and they didn’t want any part of being short.

But when the market turns and isn’t at one of my S/R numbers you can bet I am looking for a retest of the area and head to one of my numbers.

Tim Mack

Pre Market April 27, 2010

Looks like my “feeling” was right, as soon as I posted the market sold off into the close. The market left a swing day by making a new high and closing low and well below its OR. Although the market looks like it has more down side, the line in the sand is the 8 ma of the Value area now at 1200.75. If we take this out with conviction then we can see a nice sell off, hopefully. Otherwise we can rotate back up waiting on Fed No News and Goldman testimony. Above us we have resistance at the settle 07.50 the Value area low 11.50 and the Value area high 15.50. Be low us, if we trade below and find acceptance under 00.75, we have support at 94.25 and weekly support at 90.25.

Good Trading

Tim Mack

It a wrap!

We are waiting for the Fed to say nothing. The markets were quiet like it was mid August. The pit was thin most of the day with about 50-60 locals at best.

The Naz started to pick up and the S&P couldn’t make it back into Fridays range so overall a bullish sign but it just "feels" like it wants to trade lower. Its best to sit on your hands then get chopped up trying to take a few ticks out of the market. One thing that is gnawing at me is that the Vix opened above 17.0 and has stayed there most of the day.

When the markets rally strong they become overbought. Many traders hunt for a short position thinking it has to pull back to digest the rally. However, it must be considered that the markets can “work off” that overbought condition by trading sideways. Sideways or consolidated trading in a narrow range rotating from one extreme to another can do just as much to reset the market as a break (pull back). This catches a lot of traders off guard. They don’t look for a rally until they get a pull back trying to “buy the dips” so they are not long. The Shorts plant their feet (and their pride) believing the market needs to correct. But it never does. The rally comes and the shorts are stopped out further perpetuating the rally. And so the story goes......

I’m calling it a day here. My trigger finger is itchy and that always gets me in trouble…..

Tim Mack

Update

Soon after the open which was mixed, Goldman and JPM came in buyers, not aggressive but JPM in particular came in steady buying 20 contacts at a time for about 500 total. The locals were short but the kids in the sandbox were not cooperating, The Naz sold off sharply and cant get above its OR. Hummmm.

The RU MD and YM were not interested in trading below their OR. The ES crossed back and forth from one end of the IB to the other. This is a great market to get chopped up in, I will wait until either the locals start getting their way and the other markets are on board or other time frame players step in with conviction.


Tim Mack

Premarket April 26, 2010

We have an overnight high (Globex) of 16.75. This is also a contact high. We will likely test this during RTH. If we take a peak above it and only find stops and no new initiative buyers by other time frame traders we will likely rotate back down to 09.25, the Value area high or 02.25 the value area low. I have an 8 MA of the daily Value area average at 1198.00. Trading below this area with conviction will set the tone for a new trend to the downside. Looking at the NYA I don’t see that in the cards but I know anything can happen and usually does when we least expect it.

The locals were gunning for stops around that 08- 09 area on Friday which pushed the market higher so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if see a nice bounce off that area in today’s session.

Tim Mack

Its not the size of the ship but the motion of the ocean

I keep telling my wife that. I hope to convince her one day ….

As per the last Commitment of Traders Report published last Friday for data ending the prior Tuesday, the open interest for the minis was 2,496,089 contracts and 322,306 contracts for the Bigs. Five minis is equivalent to one Big so on a dollar based volume there are almost 1 1/2 as much e minis outstanding, ($150 billion minis vs $96 billion Bigs)

You would think that the screen traders are in control of the market. They carry the biggest open position. They crush the open out cry traded contacts 1:1½. I have heard a lot of screen traders say that open out cry is dead, they just don’t have the muscle like the old days. There are now too many wiz kids out there with algorithm black boxes trading VWAP. Just like at the poker table the punk kids with online gold bracelets can now take on Doyle Brunson and make him hope he’s wearing Depends.

Well nothing can be further from the truth and nothing can be a substitute for experience. This is one reason the “kill” rate is so high in this game. The worst thing that can happen is that you start out young and bold and make a killing in your first few trades. You will become invincible until they come and repo your car.

There is an old saying; “There are old traders and there are bold traders but there are no old bold traders”.

Old traders learn that it’s not the size that you trade but the timing that yields the greatest gain. There are a lot of old trades at Goldman and the reason that they are the most profitable investment bank known.

The other day the market was breaking hard from heavy selling by Swiss Bank. I know many stock traders and e mini screen traders don’t believe that a single house selling the S & P Bigs could possibly move the markets. My best friend is the first to state this. He will argue that “the markets were overbought”, “the broad market was in a 3rd wave” , “the lunar cycle and the 6 weeks cycle were waning putting downward pressure”. Uggg!. He will give every excuse known that it had nothing to do with 1 simple brokerage house selling the futures in Chicago that caused all the markets and most equity stocks, trillions of dollars in value, to break. Well the truth is even harder than that. I have personally witnessed 1 single man, the largest trader in the S&P pit, Joey Borsellino, completely reverse up ticking markets in the Dow, Nazdaq, Russell, Nyse composite, Crude and the US dollar. I am certain he reversed many other markets around the world but I wasn’t watching them at the times (yes-more than once). The story of how he does it is for another time but it has mush more to do with timing and the motion of the ocean than it does with size.

The other day Swiss was selling and the locals were buying because that’s what they do. No other houses were selling, just Swiss. Swiss put a lot of downward pressure on the markets because they were aggressive in filling their sell order. The locals who were already long from sellers off the open couldn’t absorb anymore supply from the Swiss’s selling. They kept lowering their bids but Swiss kept hitting them. The locals know that just 1 house is selling, no other houses are selling. So its just one trader somewhere in the world who woke up this morning and said “SELL ‘EM”. That trader called Swiss and gave instructions something like “Sell 1,000 cars in the first 15 minutes off the bell.”. Once the order was filled and the selling pressure is gone there is a window of opportunity for the long locals to bid the market up. However this day had a better opportunity. The price that it traded down to alerted some old trader at Goldsman (probably a 23 year old wiz kid just to make me look bad) who said this is a great area to buy the market. Prices where below value and a bargain so he gave an order to buy 150 cars. This order came in just about at the low of the day and the market has rallied with out much of a pull back since.

It wasn’t that the size of the Goldman order, 150 cars, that made a difference in the market rallying (other than providing the locals some confidence that buyers were starting to step in combined with the fact that no sellers were in sight), it was the timing of the order. Long locals, no other sellers, a pull back in a bullish market and the right choice at the right time is what made a great trade. Oh yeah, I keep a Time and Sales strip up so I can keep an eye on all those kid screen traders, there wasn’t heavy buyers until after the market was up ticking.


Tim Mack

Pre Market April 23, 2010

The market sold off sharply after the cash close and drifted down a bit overnight to 97.50 then straight up in an overnight rally to 1206.75 last. It found a home (Value) between 06.5 and 03.00 and looks poised to rally North. Thursdays Value area high was 1205.00. This overnight action has seemed to accept this area as market value. The Value Area high for today is (based on yesterday’s action) 1200.75, well below where we are trading now.

Even though we made a lower Value Area high, (1205.00 previously and now 1200.75) which is a bearish indicator we have shown price acceptance, at least overnight, of a higher area. Prices are rotating higher and it doesn’t seem like bears will be in control. We may see a test of the Value Area high and close the gap from 01.75 but after doing so unless Greece forgets to ship more Ouzo, (they sent a tanker load last night) we should see higher prices.

One of these days we will see two down days in a row but I don’t see that happening now based on the current data. I don’t particularly care if the markets go up or they go down just as long as they GO! It’s a difficult job to predict the direction of the market. Many have tried and many have failed to do so. Your odds are better gauging which way the market is going and getting on board for the ride. In other words if a market is going up the probability that it will continue is greater than it wont. And when the market is trading above the OR, Value Areas and the previous day Initial Balance (IB, the first 60 minutes of RTH) then the probabilities are even greater that the markets will trade higher.

I am not a fan of the common Support and Resistance numbers. I find that they don’t work that well. Maybe too many traders are looking at them, mostly amateurs. It’s the same for Fib numbers, they just never sat well with me but a good friend of mine and an excellent market technician swears by them. Its all a matter of finding what fits your logic and personality and learn its characteristics. Value areas make good sense to me. As in any auction process a group of market participants, trading S&P’s, corn or movie futures, will generally agree at a price area that is considered fair by both parties, buyers and sellers. This area is called Value. I also use some proprietary values that work like Market Profile Value Areas. They are areas that when the market tags them there is a high probability that the price will auction back to the middle of the range. If price trades above them with conviction then there is a good chance price will tag the next higher (or lower) number.

It is your assessment of how the market behaves around these figures that can give you a clue if you want to scale out of your position, close it and wait for a reversal sign or add to your position.


Tim Mack

Supply vs. Demand

Heavy sell Paper came in right off the bell both in the pit and on the screen. That is not unusual; the locals typically scoop this Paper up and they often have the ability to at least bid the price back up to the opening range. At that point they will determine market conditions and gauge if the momentum they gained from being on the bid can continue or not. If it can, they will bust-a-move through the OR. If they see that more Paper sellers are on the horizon or other markets have responded in the same way, showing signs of weakness, they will cover their longs in the mini and go short.

These guys aren’t dummies, far from it. They are there for one thing and that’s to make money day trading. I think a lot of these locals are successful because they can “read the market” and are quick to change direction. However, sometimes they get stuck and then they get stubborn then they get into trouble. Most of the time they can work themselves out of trouble, like today. Sometimes they don’t, like last Friday.

The problem today was Swiss Bank. My guess is that they had inside information about the down grade of Greece debt or at least one of Swiss Banks clients did. They were relentless sellers from 93.50 straight down to 89.25. The locals made a valiant effort to bid the market up but as soon as they saw Swiss back on the offer they ran.

The pit is no different than any other business. Its all about supply and demand. When Swiss is offering a lot of supply (in the form of sell orders) the locals will absorb up to a certain amount. Then when they are at their limit and cant absorb anymore supply, things get can hairy. What happens here is that the locals lower their bids until they feel the price is so low that its worth buying more at bargain prices. I have seen a few occasions on heavy selling where there is no bid at all. Meaning the locals won’t buy at ANY price and there is no Buy Paper available to take the other side of the trade. It’s rare, but it happens.

Today the locals became overloaded and not willing to buy any more so they dropped their bids quickly yet still Swiss hit them with more sell Paper. This looked like it was going to get ugly-hairy but then the knights in shinning armor stepped in. Goldman stepped in and bought 150 cars (contacts). Goldman can afford the best market analysts and their clients are some of the wealthiest traders and fund managers in the world. When Goldman speaks, people listen…at least I do, and the locals do too. They sold to Goldman but quickly covered the trade and got long. You see Swiss stopped selling and there were no other buyers…just Goldman…. That’s all it takes.

You would think Swiss bank had top technicians and they would know better then to sell in to the low of they day, that makes me think all the time, but the reality is that they could be hedging an options trade or they are taking a longer term position or just like me they guess wrong who knows, who cares, The import thing to see how the market reacts to their trades. How the supply is absorbed by the demand. Given how the market traded though the OR and rallied to close near the highs it would look like more upside tomorrow however we did not make a new Value Area high (today’s was 1205.00 ) and we didn’t close above it so we really just ended no fairer than yesterday. We are starting to bounce around here, building value in a consolidation pattern. If we don’t resume our reckless abandonment of buying stocks at any price, we might actually close down more than 2 days in a row.

Tim Mack

Pre Market April 22, 2010

Jobless claims declined and the market doesn’t care. Guess all the political talk about Wall Street regulations has everyone depressed. I saw a bit of Geithner interview with Stephanopoulos this morning and was a bit impressed that he was in favor of continued creative products of Wall Street (or La Salle St) like Movie Futures.

We are testing the overnight low now and if we hold 92.25- 91.25 we might get a nice rally off the open to the 1200-1202. If we don’t hold it support comes in at 90.25, 88.0 82.75and 79-78.5.

Anything can happen and sometimes does so its best to “Go with the flow and take advantage of the moment” – Leo Melmade” Former Chairman if the CME

Tim Mack

A membership will cost you $615,000

If you want to stand in the pit it will cost you a membership fee of $615,000. You can lease a seat but you have to put up a big security deposit.

For the privilege, you get to stand with 100 other guys and a few gals and trade the Spoos, (big S & P contacts). When you’re a Newbie you get to wear a special badge that says you can only trade less than 10 contracts and that the other locals cant abuse you. But they do anyway.

Lord help the Newbie that stands in the spot of another member. Spots inside the pit are “owned” by senior members. They stand there everyday, same spot, month after month, year after year. They know exactly where to look when they want to see the Trin or the cash markets on the boards overhead. But more importantly, they know when the phone rings over their left shoulder it’s a certain desk likely coming in with an order. It could be the clerks girl friend calling wondering why she suddenly got a rash but more than likely, especially when we are on the highs or the lows, the old timers know the phone call is a Paper customer calling with an order.

Because of where we are in the days range and what desk the phone rings, locals have a good idea if the order is a buy order or sell order. When we are on the highs and the Merrill phone rings there is a good probability that’s it’s a buy order, a good time to sell. When it’s the Goldman desk and the phone rings on the high its likely a sell order, another good time to sell. This edge is why a seat costs $615,000, it’s probably undervalued.

Paper entered mixed off the bell this morning. Merrill was a seller, JP was a seller. GS and the locals bought. To me things were looking pretty bullish. All markets were trading above their OR and I had a bullish bias from yesterday’s action. Did I say bias….. That’s the worst thing you can have as a day trader, a bias. I was hunting for longs and I should be hunting only for opportunity. This is not a lesson I learned today. This is a lesson I learn every few weeks, and this has been going on for years. Fortunately it doesn’t cost me much anymore but in the early days it cost plenty, mostly emotionally.

The right phone must have rung over some locals shoulder. I didn’t hear it and I am not standing in the pit so he can’t give me a nod along with his buddies. But they suddenly started getting short at 05.50. It wasn’t that a large buyer stepped in that they sold to. They just started getting short, selling the screen. Some buyers, not a lot, started coming in as they should have, we were above the opening range and even our 9:45 program trader kicked in a buy program. I’m scratching my head. I’m thinking they will have a tough time muscling this market through the OR. They sold every scrape of Paper from 05.50 up to 07.50, the high of the day. What did they see? What did they know? I wanted them to stay long so that they can do all the heavy work while I rode their coattails. That’s usually how my day goes and I’m just fine with it.

Soon after, the NQ started breaking. It broke its OR and led the way. (There is an open out cry pit for the Nazdaq which is next to the S&P pit. All these guys are in ear shot and they all hang at the the same bar and gym so there could have been a signal from that group and not a phone call. That would also explain why I didn’t see it coming).

Locals were aggressive on the offer and I started to believe they were going to get their way. They did and they pushed the market down to the low 98.25. The thing about locals pushing higher or in this case lower is that’s it’s a false move. Meaning that it’s a manipulated move. All manipulated moves, once the pressure is off, will return to the markets fair value area. The market did just that but the bounce back stopped at the bottom of the OR. Market forces then took over. Theses forces were bearish and the market traded lower closing below the OR and the Value area low with the Trin settling at 1.75. At least 1000 cars sold on the cash close between Goldman, JP Morgan and Swiss Bank, the 3 most respectable players. This is a bearish setup for tomorrow. The exception is the Russell (which is like a kid with ADD) and the Vix which settled below 17.0 at 16.32.

We have some big reports tomorrow- producer price index and jobless claims at 8:30 and existing homes sales at 10:00 ET uggg, no wonder Goldman sold the close…..


Tim Mack

Pre Market April 21 2010

Well I guess the euphoria over Apple earnings is over, gee that was quick. As long as we trade above yesterdays opening range and Value Area low of 1200.25 I will be hunting for longs. If Paper buyers enter off and near the open, the locals being short will try to muscle the market lower. How good of a job they do will tell the nature of the market, at least for the morning session.

I have support at 98.75- 97.00 beyond that, 94.50- 92.75. The 92.75 is my 8 day moving average of the daily Value Area average. Its my line in the sand that says above it long positions pay the best, below it short positions pay the best. Above we have the Globex high, that could be a good candidate for a 1 tick at 09.50, above that 11.00-12.00 should slow this irrational exuberance.

Tim Mack

End of Day Recap

Size Paper buyers came in on the opening bell. Soon after more Paper buyers came in to the market. The locals sold and were short. As the first 30 minutes of trade continued more buyers came in. Locals, already short and holding the OR high, continued to sell to them. They did a fair job offering the price lower and there was a great opportunity to get short on a bounce off the OR high.

Then the best thing that could happen happened. Merrill Lynch came in a buyer. Merrill is like the ol’ Lind Waldock. Remember them? When these guys come in you can almost guarantee the market will trade in the other direction. In fact they are often buying the high and selling the low.

Locals, size short, were aggressive offering the price lower. Paper seemed quiet. The buyers were done and no sell paper came in. The locals should have had an easy job of it to push this market lower. But they ran into a wall at yesterdays high and it wasn’t from Paper entering the market. It was the electronic side of the market. This side can stop them in their tracks and it did. I lost my Time and Sales and Market Delta due to technical issues so I couldn’t see it happening live. But I have seen it before and it becomes more common place as institutional traders move to the screen more and more.

Nevertheless, when the locals are short and they can’t do a good job pushing the market lower, you better flatten up and pick a place to get long. You also know we are in a strong bullish market.

We corrected the Goldman news selloff, the Volcano is no longer causing flight delays and Greece sent a case of their best Ouzo to Germany’s Chancellor so all is well there until the hangover hits.

We created higher value today and closed above all OR’s, well it took the NQ and RU the aftermarket to do it. The Vix closed well below 17.00 at 15.23 UGGGG! So it would appear that we are back on track to new contract highs. Its back to "close my eyes, lift any offer and take a nap."

That all being said watch us crash tomorrow, lol

Tim Mack