I Love A Good Kiss.

Who doesn’t? Even the Market loves a good wet sloppy kiss. The chart below shows the NYSE composite index, one of my favorites for a longer term view, being kissed by the 200 week simple moving average. Lots a kissing going on here and the 200 MA is giving it a big wet sloppy one right now.

NO ONE is to say if this will be a kiss hello or good bye. Some gurus are very good at predicting the Market until they’re not. In other words, no one knows but everyone likes to guess. I hear just as many good technicians calling for more bullish action and just as many saying we going to hell in a hand basket (whatever that means).

In my opinion we should be going to hell in a hand basket because there is no fundamental reason for prices to be at this level. The Feds are simply dropping money from helicopters so that equity prices will rise on free and plentiful money and everyone will feel warm and comfy with their 401K statements and start back on the feast of over consumption and irrational exuberance. On the other hand, looking at the PIIGS and BRICs, we just might be the best game in town and deserve the money flow into US instruments (although if that was very true precious metals might not be on their highs).

My opinion doesn’t pay me. In fact my opinion has cost me more money than its made me. So I will leave it to writing in blogs so I can at least share it and maybe vent a little. My wife has long given up on being interested in my opinion of the Market. Once I start laying in on her with my economic opinions and start giving long winded reasons, she either looks like she has just finished the left over turkey or suddenly needs to go shopping.

What does pay me is the price action, knowing the markets opinion and knowing areas where it may change. It took me a while to figure out that price and the Market don’t give a rats ass about my opinion or the opinion of well paid gurus. If the price is going up then the opinion of the MARKET is bullish. If the prices is going down then the opinion of the MARKET is bearish. If the price is balanced or in a trading range then the MARKET has no opinion.

Our job as technicians and Market timers is to think in terms of probabilities and having an opinion can cloud that thought process. Right now the Market is going up. However it is at an important area where it may change this opinion. It is also at this important area below a long term and meaningful trend line. There is a high probability that if the Market kisses the 200 SMA good bye we could be in for a wild ride south. On the other hand, prices could toy in this area a while and then rally leaving the 200 SMA behind in its dust (a pretty good scenario if the PIIGS end up on the barbeque). Price could also pop up a bit more to form a top then head south, a better bearish scenario as the “look” isn’t quite right for top.



The pit action has been telling. Goldman played the long side going into Friday jobs and then have been covering longs and possibly scaling in short (know that GS trading may be different clients or their prop trading, you don’t know but when Goldman talks in size people listen). Locals have been getting run over. It seems that they are having less and less ability to muscle the market. As an example, Friday they were short and pushing lower but with very little buy paper, the Market rallied strong. This was all electronic trading which they can not influence.

We have had 5 days in a row of low ARMS readings and that is an indicator that the market is getting too over bought. We should see a nice break this week maybe Monday but maybe on Turn Around Tuesday. This will help us read the Markets opinion. If we rally back and retrace this break we may just be giving the Market that kiss hello. If we make a token new high and close the week lower it will start to have that right “look” for a top.

In the end there is a high probability that the Markets opinion shall change (or be reaffirmed) in this area. The Market will tell you what that opinion will be but you will have to be patient.

Good trading,

Tim Mack


Ps I think I will continue to refer to the Market as a proper noun, seems appropriate.

Blue Skies and Pink Clouds

Ok that last post was a bit depressing. Maybe I am bearish because Nixon and Volcker made a big mess. I can blame them because hindsight is easy to see faults. I will explain the mistakes they made which led to excessive money supply combined with an over abundance of credit in a detailed post later. In short, their action then inaction created excessive consumption of equities, real estate and anything else that moved or didn’t move. That excessiveness coupled with excessive government spending and corruption is seen at peaks of empires.

Our Presidents are also a sign of a peaking empire. Clinton, who was that last full term President in a rising empire, got away with lying. “I did not have sexual relations with that girl”. Everyone was so drunk and high they simply said… “OK, even if we proved you did, and caught you red handed in a lie; we forgive you because we are stoned and please pass the bong. Oh right, he didn’t inhale-yea right….

Then we elected Bush who was totally unqualified to be a President, We didn’t care, we were drunk. The only thing he had going for him was the momentum of the empire and he had a father who was an experienced President to ask for advice when times got tough. But Bush being Bush relied on the wrong father for advice.

His term was the actual peak. We were still drunk so we reelected him, then we started to sober up and we started down the backside of the mountain. Bush was so bad that we had two minorities as the only real candidates for election. McCain’s big mistake was Palin as he tried to compete with the popular minorities in the other party. All I can say is we are lucky he chose her as he might have been President and we would be in war with North Korea and Iran right now. That will come - be patient.

Poor President Obama – They guy doesn’t have a chance. Even if he was a good President, which there are few as you must be a good leader and they are only good at getting elected which doesn’t qualify you to lead a country, he is fighting the pressure of a declining empire. Only a very strong leader and visionary can make the hard and unpopular choices that are needed to slow the trend. I think he is a smart guy but his handlers will never let him make the right choices. He is certainly not a leader.

The pace at which we consumed life during the ’80’s and ‘90’s is simply a pace that can’t be sustained forever. Sooner or later we have to pay up. Adams Smith’s invisible hand has to “Beech” slap us for all the abuse and misbehavior we participated in. This happens every 40 years or so. It’s just a cycle, this one being bigger than the last few.

Nevertheless, I could be wrong and events might reverse the current direction. These events are yet to come so my outlook is bearish but still, it is possible that the EU breaks up and dollars are in demand as safe haven which will be put to work in treasuries and equities. Its possible that China never measures up to their growth expectations as they have no value for the Rule of Law. As mush as they try to grow and expand their economy it will still be suppressed by the distribution of wealth but not to the poor who can consume goods and better their quality of life but to the crooks who pick and choose what to make, when to make it and who will supply it.

If so, we will likely chop around the 10,000 area just like we did 1,000 and 100. Then we will break to a strong rally and there will be nothing but blue skies and pink clouds,, Oh yea, we will have to get out of two very costly wars and avoid two others for this to happen. Otherwise even if the EU and China are not good investments, neither are we.



Tim Mack

Panic set in !!!!!

I was in the mall this weekend and panic set in. I could not find my way to the espresso bar. Luckily I came across a map marked with an arrow “you are here”.

Simply look up were I wanted to go and I knew what direction to head.

Here is a “possible map” I could be wrong but I used a fractal comparison of the 1929-1930 price action to 2007-2010. My theory is that similar excess investment capital created both highs and the same contraction of credit created the declines off the highs.

The recent period took longer because there are many more players in the market and a lot more capital. Nevertheless, crowds behave the same under similar conditions.

I am wrong if we take out the April high.

Love is in the air…….

Its our anniversary. My wife and I were married 14 years ago today… She forgot.

At least the S&P has found love. Love with 1085. The next objective is this 1102 area which is the top of this longer term value area. As long as we can hold this area we have a shot for a big rally. Its ok if we trade lower tomorrow but we will have to bounce right back up and take off. Watch how price responds to this area and that will give you a clue where we are headed.

Paper sold size off the open and locals were long…Here comes Joey on offer pushing lower. He likes to fade the pit especially when paper is inactive. We couldn’t get the market past the OR which was a great signal that we were set for a bullish day. When he cant muscle the market the market forces are too big against him.

Tim Mack

Everyone has an opinion…including me.

I can't stress enough the importance of listening to others but forming your own.

One opinion that should be weighted more than anyone else’s is (in my opinion, lol) the markets.

The market’s opinion matters a great deal. If the market is going up it has a bullish opinion, if its going down, a bearish. If it is rotating between price levels it has no opinion; it is in value and is not biased to one side or the other. It’s that simple.

On a short term bases the market is looking more and more bullish providing we trade above 1085.00 Sept S&P.

We can test below, maybe gap lower on Monday but if after the bell, we trade through 85.00 by 3 handles and find “love above” then we will look toward 1102.75 area for yet another retest. We have already been there twice and have been rotating between that level and +/-1040.

Based on the weekly close 1085.00 being higher than last weeks close 1062.25 (June) and the Paper buyers coming in light but steady before and after the parade on Friday, if I had to guess, we will see 1102.75. But again, I wont put my money on that opinion (and its even my own, lol). My money will be in the direction of price soon after the bell come Monday.

On a longer term or intermediate term basis, this is where you have to put on your thinking caps and open your ears to the markets opinion. No one else’s

The market has found value in this range of +/-1102 - +/-1040. It’s found a home, a very comfortable level. It has no opinion. Markets don’t stay range bound for ever. Sooner or later the market will break out of the range and decide if it will seek lower prices to find value or higher prices. You can recognize early telltale signs like if we “find love above” 1085.00 then fail to take out 1102 and trade sharply right back through 1085.00 on a rejection. That says the market wants no part of that area and we will likely not only test the low of +/-1040 but cut right through it since it will be our third trip down there. I would rather see a double bottom than a triple. I favor this scenario as we have been trending down since April and markets tend to work off aggressive initiative trades with sideways action, this is also common in a 4th wave.

We can also just kiss +/-1102.00 good bye and rotate right back down to +/- 1040.

We can also trade right up through and find 1102.00 as support which will send us off to test 1118.00 and probably make higher highs until August. That would put the right amount of market analysts on record with a wrong opinion on a contrary move.

The point is, on a longer term basis, the market has a potential to stay in rotation within this valued area, play it safe, and let the day traders have a little fun or, it can break out and there will be some great profit opportunities for longer time frame traders.

Read the price action and it will clearly tell you what the markets opinion is.

Tim Mack

“It is no use saying, 'We are doing our best.' You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary.” - Winston Churchill

Where will the market go next?

If you step back its clear to see that the market is trending down. However the trend is driven by larger time frame traders or decision makers like my buddy Joe da Sixes and large funds.

I’m a day trader so I am short below the OR and right now really enjoy that position, or long above the OR and will take profits early. I am quick to take profits as we rotate inside the Value area as well.

I caution everyone reading this blog who listens to anyone who thinks they know what the market will do. They will claim huge historical successes or that they have been watching the markets for years thus supposedly giving them some insight, or they have written a book or have provided years of commentary.

They don’t have any more of a clue where the market is going to do than the next guy who is looking at a 50 and 200 day MA. In fact it amazes me how some industry professionals who have been on the floor for years and who think they know enough that they can give advice are so clueless.

If they really did know anything they would be traders and not talkers.

Look and listen but draw your own conclusions. If you are reading this post I bet you are smarter than most of the clowns on the floor.

Tim Mack

“Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense.“ - Buddha

What is Joe Six Pack going to do?

Its my opinion that Joe believes the market goes up and the market goes down. And its way too complicated and far too manipulated for him to bother figuring out.

He thinks…..

The stock market gains an average of 10% in value over time.

If he adds a little each paycheck, on the 15th and 30th he is “dollar cost averaging” and he will smooth out the volatility. So just as long as he sticks to the “Plan” his statement will show gains over time. All those investment books saying the same thing must be right….right?

He is not about to freak out on sharp declines by calling his broker and shouting “SELL EVERYTHING”. Why? Because he will leave the market timing to Wall Street. If he wasn’t smart enough to know that going into March 2009 he certainly learned his lesson the rest of the year.

And look at the last decline how it snapped right back. He says: “Those bastard Algo traders! They are manipulating this market. As long as I buy good American companies they will do well. America is the greatest country in the world so it is guaranteed that my stocks in Blue Chip America will always gain value….over time. And I am in it for the long haul…God Bless America”

He then remembers to order that oil pan gasket for that transmission in the bathtub (you need to read Richard Maybury, which I highly recommend, to get that joke)

The problem with Joe is he only knows what he has experienced. He never opened a history book, or if he did, he only read the books provided in public schools which tell a one sided, partial story

Joe experienced 1987. No big deal, the market zoomed off to crazy highs and rewarded those who held stock.

Joe experienced the greatest bull market in history through the 1990’s. Everything goes up especially if its a blue chip.

Joe experienced the pain in dabbling in biotech stocks and dotcoms.

Joe experienced 1999-2003 and then witnessed new highs; It pays to hang tight. Right?

What’s Joe going to do now?….. What’s Joe going to do when we break new lows?

Figure out what Joe is going to do and you can more accurately predict market behavior. This is part of Elliot Wave theory. Bob Prechter had a good description of the emotion that makes up wave 2 and wave 3, what we a probably in now on a very large (but not super cycle but big) degree. I just cant find his quote, but its based on how all humans act and react…pain (fear) and hope (pleasure).

I’m going way out here but…..

Religion is popular because it plays on these two emotions. Very simply put: early on, man (and woman) were fearful of lightning, thunder, wind etc so they prayed. The act of praying triggers relief of the stress of fear. They felt better (pleasure) after praying intently so they kept doing it. Eventually they figured out that the weather was not controlled by Gods and should not be “feared” but should be “understood”. Still, praying offered pleasure (in the way of stress relief) so they switched to praying to a God as we still do today.

This is simply how humans work, like it or not, and understanding how humans work is the key to understanding and predicting how markets works. The markets are made up of Joes (and fund managers). I know several fund managers and more than a few are on par intellectually with Joe.

Joe will eventually feel pain. He will realize that the market stopped going up. He will recall 1999-2003 and 2008-2009, still fresh in his memory. He will look at his 401K statement with performance in brackets. He will long for the feeling of pleasure just seeing a statement that didn’t show a loss. He will feel the pain knowing that his retirement years, as a baby boomer, are close by.

He will then sell. And he will sell everything. It won’t be the big funds, these managers are just trying to stay par with the S&P. They aren’t trying to take big “short” risk to show huge profits. Its more popular to be in bonds then to be “short” when your managing the Teachers Union’s account.

So when will Joe sell?

The market has been looking to break last few days. Today we saw more buy Paper than we saw in a week. So we may not get the break I was expecting on Monday. Still the market is weak and will react violently to any bad news. If terrorist weren’t complete idiots (I am sure glad they are) they would pick now as a time to strike. They would do more damage to the financial markets with a single car bomb in Times Square now than any other time.

Still, if an event created a hard break Joe won’t sell. He hasn’t seen enough losing statements yet. Wave 3 may very likely turn out to be a slow grinding decline as statements show up in the mail and Joe’s pleasure and hope turns to pain and fear.

Just for the record I love America. I have full size replicas of the Declaration of Independence, The Constitution and the Bill of Rights hanging on the walls in my office. I look at them often and wish our political leaders believed in them as much as our founding fathers did. They will again one day………… after a lot of pain.


Tim Mack


"A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned - this is the sum of good government." - Thomas Jefferson

Sellers…..The Story

Paper sold the bell with JPM selling 250 soon after, Swiss banks sells 200 and the story continued. The rally off the open was long locals. They kept the market bid until they found paper buyers on stops near the IB high were they covered. Without the locals on the bid the market went were the market wanted to go. The trend that was in play prior to the holiday counter trend move resumed and we closed well below the open, Fridays settlement, the Value area low and on the lows.

88.50 was last week and the month settlement. This figure will be an important level as we progress through the week and the month.


Tim Mack

"Don't be afraid to give up the good to go for the great." - John D. Rockefeller

Something you should know…..

I thought about starting a blog when I was bored during the dull market action we experienced in March. I needed something constructive to do mid day and I had the energy to share some of my experiences. It’s funny how no sooner that I start posting, the markets started getting range.

While learning to trade I read every bit I could get my hands on. I absorbed some of what fit my personality and discarded the rest. I thought this blog might help others that were interested in learning and willing to do the worked that was necessary.

I don’t promote anyone’s product or service. I only once suggested a book to read but I was not asked to do so nor do I have any affiliation with the author or publisher. Promotion is not the intent of this blog.

If you are interested in learning more please e mail me and I will share with you some resources I found useful but I do not believe it is appropriate to make such recommendations publicly.

I only posted a link to this blog 3 or 4 times in other blogs and it is incredible that this generated such a large following especially in such a short period of time. I guess because I talk about something that is not unique or exclusive, but simply rarely written about in a free format such as a blog; market auction as it is applied to the S&P futures trading.

I live by, and teach my kids, 3 simple rules of life:

1. Don’t take what you didn’t earn or was given to you, don’t steal

2. Don’t hurt people; physically or psychologically.

3. Do what you say/ promise.

In order to be compliant with rule 3 I will tell you that you can listen to a service that will provide commentary of what occurs in the pit in a chat room at Think or Swim™. This is free to anyone who has an account with them or TD Ameritrade™. You can also purchase the service at Tradersaudio.com.

I was fortunate that I was being trained by a bond local at the time I started using this service. I also had the opportunity to stand ring side at the bond, S&P and crude pits observing first hand, for hours at a time, how the markets auctioned between paper and locals. It can be extremely confusing unless you have comprehensive knowledge of what is occurring in the pit and how to interpret this information from chatter to a useful trading tool. You also must listen at all times so you know the position of locals and how aggressive paper has been. It takes a long time to master and there is NO medium that I am aware of that teaches an individual the value of this service and demonstrates daily examples.

This blog is getting a bit more complicated than it was intended. It apparently is not sitting well with some folks who feel the information I disclose is proprietary or exclusive. Instead of looking at this as an opportunity it is viewed as an obstacle. That’s alright because the markets are picking up so I am pretty busy during the day and exhausted at night and I still have my own homework to do. Also the weather is getting nice so I like to spend time biking with the kids when I can. So I may not post as often. However I will try to make the post better quality. I still have a post about the Holy Grail…… It cometh.

There is one trading technique I want to share today. Yesterday the IB closed at 88.75. There should have been a bunch of stops built up above that because of the way we traded there the last few days. We ticked above it and came right back. That means there were no buy stops up there that stopped out weak shorts. If there were, the price would have “zipped” up as the stops turn to market orders and the filling brokers aggressively try to fill the buy orders. Instead there was nothing.

Joey Borsellino got short and started to push the market lower but that isn’t necessary for you to know to sell near the high of the day. All you need to know is how the market works and how to read the price action. I plan to share more of this with you in the future but we will need more rain and less biking.

I would like to thank many of you for all the positive comments. It was very encouraging and motivated me to continue posting even when it was just about the last thing I felt like doing after a highly active trading day.


Tim Mack


“The average person puts only 25% of his energy and ability into his work. The world takes off its hat to those who put in more than 50% of their capacity, and stands on its head for those few and far between souls who devote 100%.” - Andrew Carnegie

Is there a PPT (Plunge Protection Team) ?

There was a Fed mandate after 1987 to set up a team of some sort to prevent chaos in a collapsing market. I read details on their responsibility a long time ago, can’t remember where. After witnessing first hand tick by tick several very severe breaks l can tell you that they are not present when the markets are crashing hard, and if they are, they are powerless to do anything about it.

The Fed usually does everything wrong anyway and trying to prop up the market wont be any different. Winston Churchill said it well when he said; “ Americans always do the right thing after they tried everything else first”. That’s because our government employees are not as smart as we hope they would be. I realized this even more so when I learned that Alan Greenspan called up Leo Melamed and asked him what he should do the night of the 1987 cash. Ummm… Alan was the Fed chairman managing the Federal Reserve of the wealthiest country in history; Leo was just managing the CME.

Well maybe they aren’t as dumb as I think and If that’s true then the PPT was in action today. The markets were set to break further. When we open gap lower so far from Value and below my proprietary range the markets tend to continue selling off sharply. It can rally off the bell but within the first hour (IB) and often within the first ½ hour, the market will peak and sell off straight through the opening range. The rally never fills the gap and the gap traders start puking adding to the sell off. Alternatively, the markets will sell off sharply right off the bell. The market may up tick the OR a bit but only briefly before breaking.

We didn’t get that sell off. In fact, after a quick test below the OR we found support at the opening range high and never looked back. Locals got short several times during the day but couldn’t get the market to break yet there was no huge stand out paper buying. This might be a sign that someone, with a huge bank role of.. umm the Fed, stepping in any buying the market. Maybe they saw the strong sell off yesterday and the sell off on Globex this morning and decided this would be a good time to step in prop the market. That wouldn’t be so dumb.

I still have a hard time believing this, I just don’t see a PPT organization run by the Fed doing anything right although they probably outsource the whole thing to Goldman and its their technicians that are trading the Fed account. That I might buy. Even still no market can be manipulated and if this IS the case we will be retracing the strong rally today at some point. If this was buyers stepping because they felt the market was below value then we should open and hold 79.00-81.00 tomorrow.

Regardless, as long as you disregard the “who” and “why” and only trade the “what” as in “what is happening to price in relation to the OR”, you will be on the right side of the market. The locals were a great tell too. If anyone is going to be effective manipulating the S&P’s intra day its going to be the locals. They are masters at it and when they cant get their way bulling the market lower you know you have a strong market on your hands and you want to be with that force.

May the force be with you.

Tim Mack


“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” - Henry Ford

Careful out there

Careful out there traders. We will be opening well below yesterdays Value Area low of 79.50 and a proprietary range low of 58.25. This means the sentiment of yesterday changed significantly to the downside.

Keep this handy, you might need it:

Daily Price Limits RTH: Successive 10%, 20%, 30% limits (downside only)

Yesterdays settle was 1071.00. You may want to book mark this link;

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-sandp500_quotes_settlements_futures.html


Tim Mack

The secret of the Holy Grail Cometh

The market found value between 1090 and 1075 today. That’s not a bullish tone. Ideally for the bulls we should have retraced part of Fridays Raging Rally and traded above Fridays high by 3 handles to find higher Value. If so we would then make it back to 1105 area for a test. Now its wait and see how this market opens and trades in relation to this range. It could go either way because we stayed within Fridays Value Area so really there has been no change to the sentiment of Friday. Still we are closing far enough below the OR low that my guess is for lower prices.

There was very little paper today, mostly buy side this morning and sell side near the cash close. I have to jet this evening so I will keep this post short But I did spend some time drafting a post about the Holy Grail, I just don’t have time to finish it up today. If these dull markets keep up I can post commentary but my guess (and my hope) is that we will see lots of excitement in the very near future and lazy days like today that gives me a chance to write will become less frequent.

Tim Mack

And They’re Off!!!!

Straight up 28 handles right out of the gate. Paper sellers on the bell, locals long and the market just went straight up with little effort by the locals. A big Paper buyer came in at 65.00-64.00, locals found their buyer, and the market just kept going. The May 6 crash low was 1056.00 in the mini and 1060.00 in the bigs.

We tested this low on the bell at 1051.25 in the mini and 1051.50 in the bigs. A huge rejection of that tested low caused the rally. That can set a great double bottom and we can be off to new highs……..unless we retest that low again. Typically a 2.5-3 handle “test and reject” can set the tone for a change is trend and we would then consider the action since the end of April as a correction of the bull market since March of ’08. We went a little deeper than the 2.5-3 handles but that could be chalked up to the increases in volatility.

However, in my opinion we are at a critical point. I would have preferred not to see and move back into the range of the crash which would suggest that it was an anomaly meaning prices would never return to find Value at that level. But they did, and that’s not bullish. If it wasn’t for the fact that we rejected that low so vigorously Friday I would say tighten your helmet straps cuz is going to be a long 2-3 rear ride down the Slope of Hope.

Meaning if we head to the 65-00- 52.00 area and rotate, finding Value, there is a good chance that the decline will continue.

If so this offers traders a rare opportunity. Declines can be sharp and fast. Elliott Waver’s are calling for a 3rd of a 3rd wave which occurs when EVERYONE heads for the exit and the door opening cant handle it. This would be caused by the baby boomers who are heading toward retirement and they cant stomach their 401K statements shrinking as they witnessed in 2000-2003 and 2007-2008. Those memories are too fresh and they are too close to needing that investment. Add some car bombs in Times Square and elsewhere (this I am afraid isn’t a matter of “if.. its simply “when”) and more bank failures (this too is a when, ) and we can have lots of panic on our hands.

If we do head up from here and the Vix remains high we will continue to have 10 handle intra day swings so either way we should have some great near term opportunities….cant wait

Tim Mack




“If you are going through hell, keep going.” - Winston Churchill

Locals a.k.a Outliers

There is a book worth reading by Malcolm Gladwell called Outliers. The premise of the book is that if you are smart, lucky and hardworking you will be highly successful. The luckier you are the more successful you will be.

Bill Gates and Paul Allen were more lucky than anything else. So were the Beatles.

Bill and Paul found themselves as two 16 year old nerdy geeks who had the very rare access to a computer that they could program. At the time, it was unheard of to have access to a computer even for university students but they found themselves with the opportunity to play all night. While most kids were sneaking cigarettes and peaking at Playboy, they were in a computer lab writing software.

When they came across an opportunity to apply their skill they had logged 10,000 hours of screen time. They were smart and hardworking and took advantage of every opportunity but more importantly….. they were lucky.

The Beatles started out smart and talented but they had more luck than talent. One of their first gigs was to play at a German strip club 6 days a week for 8 hours at a time. These kids were talented enough to be offered the job and smart enough to take it. Well…. I’m not too sure how much intelligence that decision took. They were young kids with a chance to drink beer and sing to naked women for 8 hours a day. Not a whole lot of smarts were needed to make that decision….

What happened though is that all that stage time gave them the practice they needed to become a great band. By the time they played Shea stadium they had 10,000 hours of stage time.

You can still be successful without as much luck as Bill, Paul and the Beatles had. You just might not get to their level. But if you don’t put in the 10,000 hours of hard work you will never make it.

Most wannabe traders blow out and give up long before they log the hours needed. But once you make it past the required time, which is a feat in itself, you have a great chance of being successful.


Most of the locals in the pit have well over the 10,000 hours of hard work needed to be successful. They are also smart. More street smart in the S&P pit, more book smart in the options pit but smart nonetheless.

They are also lucky. There are not a whole lot of traders in this world that have the opportunity to “make the market” in the largest equity futures pit in the world. Oh sure, with enough money you can buy a seat and open a margin account, read the rule book and trade in the pit. But you won’t last long.

The lucky ones worked as runners and were smart enough to pay attention. Others had a dad or brother who showed them “how things worked”. That cut down on a lot of hours needed to learn the game. Its important that the teacher is a relative. You won’t doubt what a relative tells you. Lacking a relative, its up to you to learn a little here, learn a little there and spend 10,000 hours watching ticks on a screen.

Most wannabe traders don’t want to do the work. They want someone to tell them all there is to know. The problem with that is they never gain the confidence needed to be successful. They also tout themselves as heroes when the trade works well and blame others when it fails.

Trading is all about confidence. Locals can get run over time and time again and still take the next trade because they have the confidence knowing that they will end the day green and if not, they will get it back tomorrow.

We saw a lot of down side activity today. All houses sold size off the open and locals were long. We opened well below yesterdays opening range, Value Area low and my propriety range. This is bearish and the houses thought so too. The locals simply took the other side as they usually do and made a best effort to bid the market up hoping to attract buyers. Failing to find buyers they wasted no time reversing and we had a great break of 10 handles below the OR (Opening Range). Locals found bids on the low and joined in rallying the market back up to the OR but a sellers market wont make if far above the OR and back down we go test the IB low, back up to the OR and eventually a test above. Its noteworthy that we completely failed to find buyers above the OR and sold off hard. Tomorrow is options expiration so we may see some continued volatility as lots of puts will expire in the money….cant wait.


Tim Mack


"I find the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have" - Thomas Jefferson

????

Paper buyers came in strong off the bell. The locals were short and got run over. They reversed and got long adding to the straight up 10 handle rally. We hit 1122 and I think the whole world got short. I was expecting the OR to hold due to the aggressive Paper buyers off the open but we plowed right through after a test.

When we rally 10-12 straight handles such a move will exhaust the buyers. Nobody wants to buy the high after 10 handles. The bulls will wait for a pull back if they want to get long or add to a position. The problem with that is that the locals are short in a breaking market so they will scoop up any buyer who comes in above the OR. They will be more cautious around the OR but if they can muscle it through they will continue selling to any Paper buyer. And why not, they are short, green and the market is going their way. In my opinion it’s the way to make the big money. Some traders will put on their full position and scale out taking profits along the way. I prefer to add on to winning trades and quickly scratch or cover a loser. Both ways can work, its just your style and goals that drive how you manage a position.


Its noteworthy that the market rallied 9 handles above the OR high and found a top then sold off to 9 handles below the OR low. This symmetry occurs often. Its always a place to look for support or resistance when we cross through the OR. After rallying to the OR we sold off and made a solid low 1099. Then back to the OR to chop around. It’s a bit puzzling because we sold off pretty well, really chopped around this OR all afternoon, was down all day from yesterday’s settle but the Arms was rather bullish settling at .52. Options expire Friday so maybe their will be some games played. We have been down most Fridays since the first of the year and May 20th (Thursday) should be an important pivot date so I have a lot of mixed signals right now.

Nevertheless because of how we rotated around the OR 13.75-12.50 I believe how we open against this range will set the mornings activity after that and beyond the first hour trade (Initial Balance period) its anybody’s call. Still feeling bearish as long as we are under the 8 MA VA at 43.25



Tim Mack


“Play the game for more than you can afford to lose... only then will you learn the game.” - Winston Churchill

Lacking Paper Sellers

That was the story today. It was just a slow grind lower on with the occasional scaled down Paper buyer who loaded the locals short. I was expecting a decent rally after finding support from the Value Area High 34.75 which would then continue yesterdays late day reversal. However once we crossed back through the low of 33.00 (within the wiggle room of the VA) there was no looking back, just a continued slow grind trend day. The locals didn’t have to work to push the market lower. This is a clear indication of a trend day, no stand out Paper either way but the market just wants to drift lower.

Trend days can chew up traders who like to pick bottoms (or tops in up trends). Few can do it successfully. Paul Tudor Jones liked to pick tops and bottoms. He was mostly picking bottoms in a bull market and made a fortune. It would take him a few tries before he found the true bottom and being a brilliant trader trained by a brilliant trader also helped. I have watched traders lose fortunes trying to pick tops and bottoms. After witnessing the carnage I learned quickly that I would rather go with the flow and have all the momentum of the markets at my back than try to fight it.

We closed at 1118.25 which is below today’s OR, yesterdays OR and come to think of it….. all the OR’s from last week. That’s not a sign of a healthy market.

My wife is a fan of the television show Greys Anatomy, I’m more the Scrubs type but rarely ever watch it. But on the even rarer occasion that my wife and I are in the same room, the TV is on and she has control of the remote, its Greys that’s on the tube. I never dreamed of being a doctor and after watching Greys it is the furthest thing from my mind.

However, sometimes when I get deep in to the zone, I think of the market as a patient laying on an operating table with all the monitors hooked up. The up ticks and down ticks of the bonds, gold, crude, and index futures are the scales on the instruments. As the market ticks past the OR, then the Value Areas high, then low, then the IB, the patient slowly dies, occasionally coming to life and gasping for air after hitting the support of a Value Area or old OR but then falling back into a comatose state and a slow death. Morbid I know, what’s even more morbid is while the patient is dying I’m short, making money and loving it.

We have Fed meeting minutes tomorrow at 2:00ET and unless they announce that they plan to go “negative” next meeting, I don’t see much happening to the upside. There is a chance that we are putting in a double bottom to yesterdays low of 1112.75. That print sure spoke “leg bottom” at the time, which is another reason that I was looking for more upside today. Taking out that low by more than 3 handles and we can say "good night Gracie".


Tim Mack


"Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense." - Buddha

Family First

Family matters are keeping me extra busy, I will be back to posting regularly soon.


"Continuous effort - not strength or intelligence - is the key to unlocking our potential." - Winston Churchill

Market Profile Value Areas

As defined by Dalton and Jones in the book Mind over Markets: “The area where 70% of the day’s business is conducted”

Based on yesterdays trading 70% of the volume traded between 1169.50 and 1162.50. When markets are “orderly” these Value Areas are an important gauge of the market. When the market is trading inside the area on the following day, the sentiment that created this area (or range) hasn’t changed. The market simply rotates from one side to the other. Lacking any other time frame traders stepping in, either long or short, the market will simply continue to rotate. In other words, both buyers and sellers found value in this range.

When you have a “disorderly market” like last Thursday, you get a huge Value Area like 57.75 handles!! as compared to a typical market like yesterday where the Value Area was 7 handles. Huge Value Area days wreak havoc on my 8 day moving average and using the Value Area high or Value Area low as support or resistance is worthless.

Today however was a good example of the “value” of the Value Area that is created in a typical trading day. The market opened up inside the Value Area at 66.50 with aggressive Paper sellers. Locals had “attitude” and bought every scrap. The market traded down to 61.75 as the locals were loading up on aggressive selling. The low was just a few ticks from the Value Area low.

Locals were long and initial Paper sellers were done. Without another wave of heavy Paper sellers the market, in the hands of the locals on the bid and the natural rotation back through the Value Area range, rallied. More Paper sellers came in one at a time and with rising prices the locals kept buying. The locals will add to their position and absorb the Paper selling as long as the prices are rising and its one house (one trader), at a time. They will cover and reverse if the next wave of Paper selling is from several houses. If several houses all start selling this means traders in different areas of the world are all seeing the same thing and betting on (in this case) lower prices. Value Areas won’t hold when these traders who are thinking on a longer term basis, believe prices are too high (or low).

The price traded up to and through the Value Area high by 2.5 handles. This didn’t attract the buyers the locals were looking for to lay off their longs. This market wanted to trade lower and once the afternoon session kicked in that’s exactly what it did trading right through the Value Area low of 1162.50 and even yesterdays OR.

The Vix at 26.82 suggests continued volatility so based on this afternoon’s action I am looking for some more downside activity. It will probably all come overnight while I’m dreaming about cold beer, warm beaches and hot bikinis.


Tim Mack

More Big Buyers

Another day of big buying, JPM bought 1000 cars aggressively within the first few minutes of trade. Goldman joined in, Solly, even the perma bear Swiss is now a buyer.

The locals were size short from selling to Paper … and here comes Joey…..

Joey stepped into the pit at 9:50 ET and started showing bid. Joey picks his moments carefully. The whole pit was size short and he knew it. He also knows the market wants to go up. He fights the whole pit and he has the skill and margin account to do it.

He lifted every offer in sight. Most of the time the other locals will just put their hands down and let him just bid or offer the market to see which way the market trades. But Joey was long and on a mission. He pushed the market higher and I don’t think he had a tough time doing it because the market was bullish anyway. He wasn’t fighting the market he was just fighting the locals in the pit. The locals didn’t put up much of a fight. They saw a bullish market and once we started trading above the opening range they puked.

Every time big buyers came in in what looked like capitulation, the locals got short but the market just rallied back up. Joey had a good day but most of the locals went home down to kiss the dog and kick the wife.

I have seen many times after the locals go home down for the day, the next day is quite volatile. They step in the pit with attitude, wanting to make their money back. They usually do and I will be right in step with them. Cant wait…


We continue to create higher value and big Paper keeps buying aggressively. I think they hope its another 1987 but its 2010………


Tim Mack

Some days it doesn’t pay to be a local, most days it does.

Paper buyers came in aggressively out of the gate and locals sold. Locals were stuck and they did everything they could to push the market lower. Then at 10:30 ET the big gun stepped in to the ring, Joey B. As I have said it is great when he is on a mission because if he gets his way he can move the market to the point that if enough sellers step in the longer time frame traders will start selling too. If he cant get his way then you know there is some good up side potential. I am always watching closely when he is on a mission.

Today, Joey’s mission failed and that was bad news for the locals that were short and continued to get short off the open. The market was so strong that these guys (and gal) couldn’t even push down to near the OR much less the top. They held those short 10 handles before puking and reversing.

The market topped out at 1169.0 with a push high on a size buyer. Locals flattened up but were not heavy short. It was one local who started aggressively pushing lower around 1167. He simply recognized the top and got short so I don’t see that it was a false move like Joey often does. Joey will fight the trend and when he is done, if the market doesn’t accept the level as value, the market will sometimes snap back in like a rubber band. This local just saw a change in trend and got on board. Locals stayed short until 1152. I wish I covered there too.

I’m not sure what to make of things here. I was expecting a pull back off the months of a steady creeping market then off to new highs into June - August but last Thursday was a little bit more than a pull back. Is “Sell in May and go away” in gear this year?

I think the break last week scared a lot of investors. Moms and Pops who still have 2008 fresh in their minds and want to preserve whatever is left in their retirement accounts may be calling up their mutual funds and moving out of equities.

I ask - has the Continuity of Thought changed?

My Value Area moving average was at 66.75 today. The market didn’t hold it so overall it is still bearish. Although we did close above the OR we could not settle above the Value area high of 56.75 or the IB high of 54.50. If we open below 44.25 tomorrow I will look for continued selling and it might just get very very interesting…cant wait!

Tim Mack