Joey Borsellino was back in the pit today. It’s great to have him back as his trading is a terrific gauge of the market. Joey and his brother Lewy started in the gold pit and moved to the S&P when it first opened. Lewy is no longer a local …umm… I heard his style of trading did not sit well with the compliance department.
However, his brother Joey is still hanging in there. He was in Italy, Naples (where my ancestors are from) for 3 weeks and then was on and off the floor for the last week or two but never traded in the pit. Joey is a very aggressive trader. He likes to push the market often selling through the bid on an aggressive push lower. Sometimes he gets his way and sometimes he doesn’t. What’s great is that he falsely moves the market. In other words he is not part of the market auction process where bidders and sellers decide on price. He is a market bully. That’s just fine with me because when he is getting his way he paves a way for the path of least resistance and I have a better understanding of where the market is heading. Often the market will bounce back like a rubber band once he is done with his aggressive pushing. Today he came in aggressive and was able to muscle the market lower but as soon as he let off the gas the market came right back. This is when I know the market wants higher prices which is exactly what we got for the first Monday of a month.
Paper buyers came in off the open and came back soon after. When the locals see all the houses with two hands in the air - palms facing in, they know that this is a battle they should join and not fight, not on the first Monday of the month. They jumped on the bid as well and up we went. Joey was part of the push that came in after the IB was formed but once we saw that the move wasn’t getting any steam there was only one other way the market was headed - up.
I am still thinking lower prices but I will simply drift with the wind and go along for the ride.
Tim Mack
Monday, May 3, 2010
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Only The Local Knows……
Friday morning I read a number commentaries from highly respected technicians of which most of them called for higher prices. These market opinions came from analysts who have decades of experience and long track records of accurate market calls. Some called for lower prices off the open but most called for high prices into the close in spite of the typical last day of the month afternoon sell off. And why not, we closed on a bullish note on Thursday.
Apparently many other traders who have some sizable accounts were thinking the same thing as these analysts and they picked 1202-1203 area to stake their claim. Paper buyers came in off the open but the real buying came in fast and furious about 10 minutes off the bell as we traded within the OR at 02.00-03.00. Everyone bought! And they bought size! Swiss Bank, who has been unusually active lately, bought 300 cars at 02.00 and another 100 at 02.80 and another 200 at 3.00. This is aggressive buying. Usually big money traders have an opinion about the direction of the market and when they want to add to a position they will patiently wait until the market pulls back so they can buy cheap. This is known as other time frame players stepping in as buyers when prices are trading below value or at bargain prices. However, when these players get aggressive to the point that they are not willing to wait then they just lift the offers in the pit.
In addition to Swiss, the old Solomon desk, (now Barclays or was that Lehman, I can’t keep track?) bought, Goldman bought, First Boston bought, Merrill sold. When all the big houses buy (and Merrill sells) it’s a good sign that we will see higher prices as the Gurus predicted. They were buying before the PMI number at 9:45 ET, (released early to subscribers which I imagine all these houses are). So my guess is that they thought the numbers would be good and the market would continue on its irrational exuberance.
The locals had a different idea. You see they were big time short. So short that they did have to lighten up their shorts by laying off some in the mini but they stayed short. When no big Paper buying came in after the positive number they held their shorts. What was interesting through is that they were so loaded up that they continued to hold short even after prices broke to the 94 area, They will usually cover and call it a good pay day, especially on a Friday when "happy hour" starts at noon.
You can see how they held offer from 10:50 – 12:00ET. Other traders left for lunch, (the ones that get paid by the clock and not the contract) which gave the locals the opportunity to start getting their way. Once they begin pushing lower and the outside world starts seeing lower prints they begin to change their bullish minds. The sell stops they hit along the way just adds fuel to the fire and soon the traders who were sitting on the sidelines start joining the party. These are the trades who thought the market was over bought and were seeking an opportunity to join a sell off. Last day of the month also adds fuel especially when trading below the prior week close. The fund manager’s start thinking they need to save their gain (actually cut their losses) and start covering their longs especially when they realize that we are trading below the close of ALL the weekly closes of April.
The key here is not to have a firm bias going in to the trading day. Fortunately I can read these analysts opinion and know, like any business consultant you deal with, 50% of what they tell you is crap. Your job is to figure out which 50% has value.
For next week I am planning on more downside activity although I am not convinced ..yet… that this is a major trend change as I don’t see a change in the “Continuity of Thought”. All that means is that I will hold my shorts a little longer and take gains early on longs but I will eagerly take the long if the market gives me that opportunity…regardless of all the bearishness I will now be reading from the Gurus …
……as an added note.. Merrill was big time right!!, who would have thought? You see in this game you can never tell who will be right and who will be wrong except the market ....which is always right.
“Go with the Flow and Take Advantage of the Moment” - Leo Melamed
Tim Mack
Apparently many other traders who have some sizable accounts were thinking the same thing as these analysts and they picked 1202-1203 area to stake their claim. Paper buyers came in off the open but the real buying came in fast and furious about 10 minutes off the bell as we traded within the OR at 02.00-03.00. Everyone bought! And they bought size! Swiss Bank, who has been unusually active lately, bought 300 cars at 02.00 and another 100 at 02.80 and another 200 at 3.00. This is aggressive buying. Usually big money traders have an opinion about the direction of the market and when they want to add to a position they will patiently wait until the market pulls back so they can buy cheap. This is known as other time frame players stepping in as buyers when prices are trading below value or at bargain prices. However, when these players get aggressive to the point that they are not willing to wait then they just lift the offers in the pit.
In addition to Swiss, the old Solomon desk, (now Barclays or was that Lehman, I can’t keep track?) bought, Goldman bought, First Boston bought, Merrill sold. When all the big houses buy (and Merrill sells) it’s a good sign that we will see higher prices as the Gurus predicted. They were buying before the PMI number at 9:45 ET, (released early to subscribers which I imagine all these houses are). So my guess is that they thought the numbers would be good and the market would continue on its irrational exuberance.
The locals had a different idea. You see they were big time short. So short that they did have to lighten up their shorts by laying off some in the mini but they stayed short. When no big Paper buying came in after the positive number they held their shorts. What was interesting through is that they were so loaded up that they continued to hold short even after prices broke to the 94 area, They will usually cover and call it a good pay day, especially on a Friday when "happy hour" starts at noon.
You can see how they held offer from 10:50 – 12:00ET. Other traders left for lunch, (the ones that get paid by the clock and not the contract) which gave the locals the opportunity to start getting their way. Once they begin pushing lower and the outside world starts seeing lower prints they begin to change their bullish minds. The sell stops they hit along the way just adds fuel to the fire and soon the traders who were sitting on the sidelines start joining the party. These are the trades who thought the market was over bought and were seeking an opportunity to join a sell off. Last day of the month also adds fuel especially when trading below the prior week close. The fund manager’s start thinking they need to save their gain (actually cut their losses) and start covering their longs especially when they realize that we are trading below the close of ALL the weekly closes of April.
The key here is not to have a firm bias going in to the trading day. Fortunately I can read these analysts opinion and know, like any business consultant you deal with, 50% of what they tell you is crap. Your job is to figure out which 50% has value.
For next week I am planning on more downside activity although I am not convinced ..yet… that this is a major trend change as I don’t see a change in the “Continuity of Thought”. All that means is that I will hold my shorts a little longer and take gains early on longs but I will eagerly take the long if the market gives me that opportunity…regardless of all the bearishness I will now be reading from the Gurus …
……as an added note.. Merrill was big time right!!, who would have thought? You see in this game you can never tell who will be right and who will be wrong except the market ....which is always right.
“Go with the Flow and Take Advantage of the Moment” - Leo Melamed
Tim Mack
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Playing video games really does pay
Here is a picture of the S&P pit area at the ol’ Merc location. You see traders sitting along the ring with headsets to locals in the pit. The window to the visitor gallery is along the back wall. The yellow jackets are clerks and the colored jackets are traders. The guy in front has controller in his hand like you would find with an X Box. I guess there is something to putting in 10,000 hours of playing Grand Theft Auto. There are a group of locals who play for “Nickles”. They will buy 10 Bigs at 1206.20 and sell 50 minis at 1206.25 picking off $125 at a clip. Do that 50-100 times a day and you can eke out a decent living for two guys. Keep in mind that with a seat you have nominal clearing fees that, once you reach a certain monthly volume like theses guys do, then the trades are free.
The Dog Lives
Gap traders having a bad day, aggressive buyers came in and you can see that the locals attempted to get prices offered below the OR but couldn't, the market is too strong here at least until another EU credit downgrade.... Lots of support at 99.5 and of course 96.75-96
Pre Market
We traded up overnight to 98.50-97.50 resistance area. If we open below we will probably rotate back toward the Settlement of 90.00 and the Value area high of 89.75. What often happens is that Paper buyers come in off the bell and locals get short. If no other buyers step in the locals will offer the market lower and get all the gap fill traders on their side. This is were trading gets tough and the importance on knowing what the market is doing makes the difference in a winning day or a losing day. Gap fill traders say if we open “X” handles above the settlement then we will go back at least ½ way. There is a trader who call this set up a “burning dog” (sick I know) and uses 4 handles as “X” .
The difference is that if Paper buyers come in aggressively after the open the locals will scratch their shorts and get long with them “going with the flow” leaving all those gap fill traders with a bad day and saving that poor little dog.
Tim Mack
The difference is that if Paper buyers come in aggressively after the open the locals will scratch their shorts and get long with them “going with the flow” leaving all those gap fill traders with a bad day and saving that poor little dog.
Tim Mack
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Spain vs California
News of Spain’s credit down grade caused a sharp decline in the market that was quickly shrugged off.
The EU is in big trouble. Not just because of Greece and Spain’s credit issues. These issues should be no surprise in recessionary economies just like California’s credit problems are no surprise during every US recession.
The difference is that when California gets in trouble, Virginia (just to pick a state) will always step up to the plate and bail them out. Maybe at the very last second but we wont let them go down. Why? Because we are the UNITED States. Always have been, always will be (much to Texas chagrin).
However when Spain, Greece and all the others that will soon follow get in trouble I don’t think Germany and the Netherlands are as willing to step up to the plate and save the day.
There is a lot to be said about the loyalty and compassion that Americans feel toward one another. I have traveled extensively through Europe and I am certain that they will not even come close to the great lengths that Americans will extend and endure to help our own citizens. We have a unique compassion for our fellow citizens. We mean it when we say it; “United we stand, divided we fall.” (well maybe except for Texas).
We hold truth and honor in extreme high regard. This is why a trader standing in the pit can sell $60 million in securities with a nod of the head and know the order will be a solid as a rock no matter what the price does at the next trade. This is why we can’t win in Iraq and Afghanistan because we can’t understand how other cultures could not respect these values. They seem logical to us, but foolish to others. Let them keep their values and do as they please. We will keep ours and live and die united by them.
(Tim steps off his soap box)
Tim Mack
The EU is in big trouble. Not just because of Greece and Spain’s credit issues. These issues should be no surprise in recessionary economies just like California’s credit problems are no surprise during every US recession.
The difference is that when California gets in trouble, Virginia (just to pick a state) will always step up to the plate and bail them out. Maybe at the very last second but we wont let them go down. Why? Because we are the UNITED States. Always have been, always will be (much to Texas chagrin).
However when Spain, Greece and all the others that will soon follow get in trouble I don’t think Germany and the Netherlands are as willing to step up to the plate and save the day.
There is a lot to be said about the loyalty and compassion that Americans feel toward one another. I have traveled extensively through Europe and I am certain that they will not even come close to the great lengths that Americans will extend and endure to help our own citizens. We have a unique compassion for our fellow citizens. We mean it when we say it; “United we stand, divided we fall.” (well maybe except for Texas).
We hold truth and honor in extreme high regard. This is why a trader standing in the pit can sell $60 million in securities with a nod of the head and know the order will be a solid as a rock no matter what the price does at the next trade. This is why we can’t win in Iraq and Afghanistan because we can’t understand how other cultures could not respect these values. They seem logical to us, but foolish to others. Let them keep their values and do as they please. We will keep ours and live and die united by them.
(Tim steps off his soap box)
Tim Mack
Wrap up FMOC day
Locals were short off the bell from selling to Paper buyers. They took a little heat but eventually were able to break the OR and sell it down to the VA low. After a bounce off the OR high I thought we might catch a nice sell off but they couldn’t make a new low and the market rallied to 89.50. Locals were long going into the news and prices broke 5 handles in a nanosecond. It was a fairly short recovery which is a bullish sign. The usual upward drift occurred until the Fed news but all that produced were paper sellers. Locals were buyers but had a tough time holding bid and the market started selling off. If it wasn’t for the short covering rally at the end of the day I would expect lower prices going in tomorrow. However we closed far enough above 85.50 that as long as we hold this price on the open we should see higher prices tomorrow. With a Vix close at 21.08 we can look for daily ranges to expand.
Tim Mack
Tim Mack
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Wrap up
Is the sky falling maybe but probably not. On days like today I like to look at two charts for a bigger picture. The NYA - NYSE composite and SPWY - Equal Weighted S&P. We put in an outside week in the NYA and reacted off a 160 week sma which could be a major reversal sign but the SPWY is still inside and hasn’t even touched its 8 ema. Both would have to start closing under the 8 ema before we start thinking the bear is back. The market still has an appetite for risk as it is still preferring High Yield bonds to Treasuries so we are likely in a pull back here and not a major reversal.
But you couldn’t tell that by the action of Paper in the pit. Paper sold heavily off the bell and as usual the locals scooped them up. They come into the pit flat each day so regardless of what happed yesterday they are likely to take the other side of the trade off the open so that they get a position on.
If they see the market is too heavy to one side they are quick to reverse and go with the flow (well most of them but some are very suborn). Today, the sell paper stopped soon after the open. Most expected a quiet day waiting for the Fed tomorrow and listening to Goldman testimony. The locals struggled to hold the bid but they are master day traders and market manipulators. The OR held after two tests, one of the lower range and one of the upper. It was a creeper but the locals were long and getting paid. As we all know by now the longer the locals can hold bid above the OR the more likely buy Paper will start coming in. It did and the locals kept laying off in the mini and holding their longs.
They were probably looking at the same target I was which was 11.25. However the market started to roll over at 1208, yesterdays settle. They tried to hold bid but couldn’t and the market rolled over them as well. Once the price traded back to the open they scratched whatever was left and started getting short. Apparently the Greeks didn’t send enough Ouzo because their bonds were down graded to junk and the markets sold off heavily. Paper sellers were aggressive with Swiss bank leading the pack. Chicago Corporation was the biggest winner selling 3000 cars through the afternoon.
Lets see what tomorrow brings. Recent Fed days have been uneventful but we have a Vix close at 22.81!!! If the pit is packed tomorrow on the bell I think we can expect an exciting morning session at least. Cant wait!
Tim Mack
But you couldn’t tell that by the action of Paper in the pit. Paper sold heavily off the bell and as usual the locals scooped them up. They come into the pit flat each day so regardless of what happed yesterday they are likely to take the other side of the trade off the open so that they get a position on.
If they see the market is too heavy to one side they are quick to reverse and go with the flow (well most of them but some are very suborn). Today, the sell paper stopped soon after the open. Most expected a quiet day waiting for the Fed tomorrow and listening to Goldman testimony. The locals struggled to hold the bid but they are master day traders and market manipulators. The OR held after two tests, one of the lower range and one of the upper. It was a creeper but the locals were long and getting paid. As we all know by now the longer the locals can hold bid above the OR the more likely buy Paper will start coming in. It did and the locals kept laying off in the mini and holding their longs.
They were probably looking at the same target I was which was 11.25. However the market started to roll over at 1208, yesterdays settle. They tried to hold bid but couldn’t and the market rolled over them as well. Once the price traded back to the open they scratched whatever was left and started getting short. Apparently the Greeks didn’t send enough Ouzo because their bonds were down graded to junk and the markets sold off heavily. Paper sellers were aggressive with Swiss bank leading the pack. Chicago Corporation was the biggest winner selling 3000 cars through the afternoon.
Lets see what tomorrow brings. Recent Fed days have been uneventful but we have a Vix close at 22.81!!! If the pit is packed tomorrow on the bell I think we can expect an exciting morning session at least. Cant wait!
Tim Mack
Support and Resistance – a Numbers Game
Usually, the S/R numbers I have on my daily worksheet work. In a breaking market, like todays, the market will at least stall at my support levels. It's a good idea to learn to trust your numbers and when they fail, know the market is headed to the next level. When that happens I interpret it as there is more conviction in the direct it is headed to take it to the next area.
My S/R levels come from deviations of the settlement price, Value areas and intraday ranges,weekly highs, lows and deviations.
S/R numbers aren’t meant to be hard figures. Especially when you have a huge stadium filled with unpredictable traders like there is in the S & P. Your S/R numbers should be considered as “Areas to do Business” and its how the market reacts at these levels that should trigger your trade. I use the position of locals and the aggressiveness (or lack thereof) of Paper trading around these numbers to tell me that we are changing direction at a level.
But I have to tell ya, I didn’t have a darn thing at 83.5. Nope not a thing. But Swiss Bank sure did because they came in aggressive and relentless buyers. The locals saw this too as well as other bids coming into the pit. As they sold to Swiss they flipped them in the mini so they wouldn’t get stuck short. They knew the market was done (at that time) going down and they didn’t want any part of being short.
But when the market turns and isn’t at one of my S/R numbers you can bet I am looking for a retest of the area and head to one of my numbers.
Tim Mack
My S/R levels come from deviations of the settlement price, Value areas and intraday ranges,weekly highs, lows and deviations.
S/R numbers aren’t meant to be hard figures. Especially when you have a huge stadium filled with unpredictable traders like there is in the S & P. Your S/R numbers should be considered as “Areas to do Business” and its how the market reacts at these levels that should trigger your trade. I use the position of locals and the aggressiveness (or lack thereof) of Paper trading around these numbers to tell me that we are changing direction at a level.
But I have to tell ya, I didn’t have a darn thing at 83.5. Nope not a thing. But Swiss Bank sure did because they came in aggressive and relentless buyers. The locals saw this too as well as other bids coming into the pit. As they sold to Swiss they flipped them in the mini so they wouldn’t get stuck short. They knew the market was done (at that time) going down and they didn’t want any part of being short.
But when the market turns and isn’t at one of my S/R numbers you can bet I am looking for a retest of the area and head to one of my numbers.
Tim Mack
Pre Market April 27, 2010
Looks like my “feeling” was right, as soon as I posted the market sold off into the close. The market left a swing day by making a new high and closing low and well below its OR. Although the market looks like it has more down side, the line in the sand is the 8 ma of the Value area now at 1200.75. If we take this out with conviction then we can see a nice sell off, hopefully. Otherwise we can rotate back up waiting on Fed No News and Goldman testimony. Above us we have resistance at the settle 07.50 the Value area low 11.50 and the Value area high 15.50. Be low us, if we trade below and find acceptance under 00.75, we have support at 94.25 and weekly support at 90.25.
Good Trading
Tim Mack
Good Trading
Tim Mack
Monday, April 26, 2010
It a wrap!
We are waiting for the Fed to say nothing. The markets were quiet like it was mid August. The pit was thin most of the day with about 50-60 locals at best.
The Naz started to pick up and the S&P couldn’t make it back into Fridays range so overall a bullish sign but it just "feels" like it wants to trade lower. Its best to sit on your hands then get chopped up trying to take a few ticks out of the market. One thing that is gnawing at me is that the Vix opened above 17.0 and has stayed there most of the day.
When the markets rally strong they become overbought. Many traders hunt for a short position thinking it has to pull back to digest the rally. However, it must be considered that the markets can “work off” that overbought condition by trading sideways. Sideways or consolidated trading in a narrow range rotating from one extreme to another can do just as much to reset the market as a break (pull back). This catches a lot of traders off guard. They don’t look for a rally until they get a pull back trying to “buy the dips” so they are not long. The Shorts plant their feet (and their pride) believing the market needs to correct. But it never does. The rally comes and the shorts are stopped out further perpetuating the rally. And so the story goes......
I’m calling it a day here. My trigger finger is itchy and that always gets me in trouble…..
Tim Mack
The Naz started to pick up and the S&P couldn’t make it back into Fridays range so overall a bullish sign but it just "feels" like it wants to trade lower. Its best to sit on your hands then get chopped up trying to take a few ticks out of the market. One thing that is gnawing at me is that the Vix opened above 17.0 and has stayed there most of the day.
When the markets rally strong they become overbought. Many traders hunt for a short position thinking it has to pull back to digest the rally. However, it must be considered that the markets can “work off” that overbought condition by trading sideways. Sideways or consolidated trading in a narrow range rotating from one extreme to another can do just as much to reset the market as a break (pull back). This catches a lot of traders off guard. They don’t look for a rally until they get a pull back trying to “buy the dips” so they are not long. The Shorts plant their feet (and their pride) believing the market needs to correct. But it never does. The rally comes and the shorts are stopped out further perpetuating the rally. And so the story goes......
I’m calling it a day here. My trigger finger is itchy and that always gets me in trouble…..
Tim Mack
Update
Soon after the open which was mixed, Goldman and JPM came in buyers, not aggressive but JPM in particular came in steady buying 20 contacts at a time for about 500 total. The locals were short but the kids in the sandbox were not cooperating, The Naz sold off sharply and cant get above its OR. Hummmm.
The RU MD and YM were not interested in trading below their OR. The ES crossed back and forth from one end of the IB to the other. This is a great market to get chopped up in, I will wait until either the locals start getting their way and the other markets are on board or other time frame players step in with conviction.
Tim Mack
The RU MD and YM were not interested in trading below their OR. The ES crossed back and forth from one end of the IB to the other. This is a great market to get chopped up in, I will wait until either the locals start getting their way and the other markets are on board or other time frame players step in with conviction.
Tim Mack
Premarket April 26, 2010
We have an overnight high (Globex) of 16.75. This is also a contact high. We will likely test this during RTH. If we take a peak above it and only find stops and no new initiative buyers by other time frame traders we will likely rotate back down to 09.25, the Value area high or 02.25 the value area low. I have an 8 MA of the daily Value area average at 1198.00. Trading below this area with conviction will set the tone for a new trend to the downside. Looking at the NYA I don’t see that in the cards but I know anything can happen and usually does when we least expect it.
The locals were gunning for stops around that 08- 09 area on Friday which pushed the market higher so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if see a nice bounce off that area in today’s session.
Tim Mack
The locals were gunning for stops around that 08- 09 area on Friday which pushed the market higher so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if see a nice bounce off that area in today’s session.
Tim Mack
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Its not the size of the ship but the motion of the ocean
I keep telling my wife that. I hope to convince her one day ….
As per the last Commitment of Traders Report published last Friday for data ending the prior Tuesday, the open interest for the minis was 2,496,089 contracts and 322,306 contracts for the Bigs. Five minis is equivalent to one Big so on a dollar based volume there are almost 1 1/2 as much e minis outstanding, ($150 billion minis vs $96 billion Bigs)
You would think that the screen traders are in control of the market. They carry the biggest open position. They crush the open out cry traded contacts 1:1½. I have heard a lot of screen traders say that open out cry is dead, they just don’t have the muscle like the old days. There are now too many wiz kids out there with algorithm black boxes trading VWAP. Just like at the poker table the punk kids with online gold bracelets can now take on Doyle Brunson and make him hope he’s wearing Depends.
Well nothing can be further from the truth and nothing can be a substitute for experience. This is one reason the “kill” rate is so high in this game. The worst thing that can happen is that you start out young and bold and make a killing in your first few trades. You will become invincible until they come and repo your car.
There is an old saying; “There are old traders and there are bold traders but there are no old bold traders”.
Old traders learn that it’s not the size that you trade but the timing that yields the greatest gain. There are a lot of old trades at Goldman and the reason that they are the most profitable investment bank known.
The other day the market was breaking hard from heavy selling by Swiss Bank. I know many stock traders and e mini screen traders don’t believe that a single house selling the S & P Bigs could possibly move the markets. My best friend is the first to state this. He will argue that “the markets were overbought”, “the broad market was in a 3rd wave” , “the lunar cycle and the 6 weeks cycle were waning putting downward pressure”. Uggg!. He will give every excuse known that it had nothing to do with 1 simple brokerage house selling the futures in Chicago that caused all the markets and most equity stocks, trillions of dollars in value, to break. Well the truth is even harder than that. I have personally witnessed 1 single man, the largest trader in the S&P pit, Joey Borsellino, completely reverse up ticking markets in the Dow, Nazdaq, Russell, Nyse composite, Crude and the US dollar. I am certain he reversed many other markets around the world but I wasn’t watching them at the times (yes-more than once). The story of how he does it is for another time but it has mush more to do with timing and the motion of the ocean than it does with size.
The other day Swiss was selling and the locals were buying because that’s what they do. No other houses were selling, just Swiss. Swiss put a lot of downward pressure on the markets because they were aggressive in filling their sell order. The locals who were already long from sellers off the open couldn’t absorb anymore supply from the Swiss’s selling. They kept lowering their bids but Swiss kept hitting them. The locals know that just 1 house is selling, no other houses are selling. So its just one trader somewhere in the world who woke up this morning and said “SELL ‘EM”. That trader called Swiss and gave instructions something like “Sell 1,000 cars in the first 15 minutes off the bell.”. Once the order was filled and the selling pressure is gone there is a window of opportunity for the long locals to bid the market up. However this day had a better opportunity. The price that it traded down to alerted some old trader at Goldsman (probably a 23 year old wiz kid just to make me look bad) who said this is a great area to buy the market. Prices where below value and a bargain so he gave an order to buy 150 cars. This order came in just about at the low of the day and the market has rallied with out much of a pull back since.
It wasn’t that the size of the Goldman order, 150 cars, that made a difference in the market rallying (other than providing the locals some confidence that buyers were starting to step in combined with the fact that no sellers were in sight), it was the timing of the order. Long locals, no other sellers, a pull back in a bullish market and the right choice at the right time is what made a great trade. Oh yeah, I keep a Time and Sales strip up so I can keep an eye on all those kid screen traders, there wasn’t heavy buyers until after the market was up ticking.
Tim Mack
As per the last Commitment of Traders Report published last Friday for data ending the prior Tuesday, the open interest for the minis was 2,496,089 contracts and 322,306 contracts for the Bigs. Five minis is equivalent to one Big so on a dollar based volume there are almost 1 1/2 as much e minis outstanding, ($150 billion minis vs $96 billion Bigs)
You would think that the screen traders are in control of the market. They carry the biggest open position. They crush the open out cry traded contacts 1:1½. I have heard a lot of screen traders say that open out cry is dead, they just don’t have the muscle like the old days. There are now too many wiz kids out there with algorithm black boxes trading VWAP. Just like at the poker table the punk kids with online gold bracelets can now take on Doyle Brunson and make him hope he’s wearing Depends.
Well nothing can be further from the truth and nothing can be a substitute for experience. This is one reason the “kill” rate is so high in this game. The worst thing that can happen is that you start out young and bold and make a killing in your first few trades. You will become invincible until they come and repo your car.
There is an old saying; “There are old traders and there are bold traders but there are no old bold traders”.
Old traders learn that it’s not the size that you trade but the timing that yields the greatest gain. There are a lot of old trades at Goldman and the reason that they are the most profitable investment bank known.
The other day the market was breaking hard from heavy selling by Swiss Bank. I know many stock traders and e mini screen traders don’t believe that a single house selling the S & P Bigs could possibly move the markets. My best friend is the first to state this. He will argue that “the markets were overbought”, “the broad market was in a 3rd wave” , “the lunar cycle and the 6 weeks cycle were waning putting downward pressure”. Uggg!. He will give every excuse known that it had nothing to do with 1 simple brokerage house selling the futures in Chicago that caused all the markets and most equity stocks, trillions of dollars in value, to break. Well the truth is even harder than that. I have personally witnessed 1 single man, the largest trader in the S&P pit, Joey Borsellino, completely reverse up ticking markets in the Dow, Nazdaq, Russell, Nyse composite, Crude and the US dollar. I am certain he reversed many other markets around the world but I wasn’t watching them at the times (yes-more than once). The story of how he does it is for another time but it has mush more to do with timing and the motion of the ocean than it does with size.
The other day Swiss was selling and the locals were buying because that’s what they do. No other houses were selling, just Swiss. Swiss put a lot of downward pressure on the markets because they were aggressive in filling their sell order. The locals who were already long from sellers off the open couldn’t absorb anymore supply from the Swiss’s selling. They kept lowering their bids but Swiss kept hitting them. The locals know that just 1 house is selling, no other houses are selling. So its just one trader somewhere in the world who woke up this morning and said “SELL ‘EM”. That trader called Swiss and gave instructions something like “Sell 1,000 cars in the first 15 minutes off the bell.”. Once the order was filled and the selling pressure is gone there is a window of opportunity for the long locals to bid the market up. However this day had a better opportunity. The price that it traded down to alerted some old trader at Goldsman (probably a 23 year old wiz kid just to make me look bad) who said this is a great area to buy the market. Prices where below value and a bargain so he gave an order to buy 150 cars. This order came in just about at the low of the day and the market has rallied with out much of a pull back since.
It wasn’t that the size of the Goldman order, 150 cars, that made a difference in the market rallying (other than providing the locals some confidence that buyers were starting to step in combined with the fact that no sellers were in sight), it was the timing of the order. Long locals, no other sellers, a pull back in a bullish market and the right choice at the right time is what made a great trade. Oh yeah, I keep a Time and Sales strip up so I can keep an eye on all those kid screen traders, there wasn’t heavy buyers until after the market was up ticking.
Tim Mack
Friday, April 23, 2010
Pre Market April 23, 2010
The market sold off sharply after the cash close and drifted down a bit overnight to 97.50 then straight up in an overnight rally to 1206.75 last. It found a home (Value) between 06.5 and 03.00 and looks poised to rally North. Thursdays Value area high was 1205.00. This overnight action has seemed to accept this area as market value. The Value Area high for today is (based on yesterday’s action) 1200.75, well below where we are trading now.
Even though we made a lower Value Area high, (1205.00 previously and now 1200.75) which is a bearish indicator we have shown price acceptance, at least overnight, of a higher area. Prices are rotating higher and it doesn’t seem like bears will be in control. We may see a test of the Value Area high and close the gap from 01.75 but after doing so unless Greece forgets to ship more Ouzo, (they sent a tanker load last night) we should see higher prices.
One of these days we will see two down days in a row but I don’t see that happening now based on the current data. I don’t particularly care if the markets go up or they go down just as long as they GO! It’s a difficult job to predict the direction of the market. Many have tried and many have failed to do so. Your odds are better gauging which way the market is going and getting on board for the ride. In other words if a market is going up the probability that it will continue is greater than it wont. And when the market is trading above the OR, Value Areas and the previous day Initial Balance (IB, the first 60 minutes of RTH) then the probabilities are even greater that the markets will trade higher.
I am not a fan of the common Support and Resistance numbers. I find that they don’t work that well. Maybe too many traders are looking at them, mostly amateurs. It’s the same for Fib numbers, they just never sat well with me but a good friend of mine and an excellent market technician swears by them. Its all a matter of finding what fits your logic and personality and learn its characteristics. Value areas make good sense to me. As in any auction process a group of market participants, trading S&P’s, corn or movie futures, will generally agree at a price area that is considered fair by both parties, buyers and sellers. This area is called Value. I also use some proprietary values that work like Market Profile Value Areas. They are areas that when the market tags them there is a high probability that the price will auction back to the middle of the range. If price trades above them with conviction then there is a good chance price will tag the next higher (or lower) number.
It is your assessment of how the market behaves around these figures that can give you a clue if you want to scale out of your position, close it and wait for a reversal sign or add to your position.
Tim Mack
Even though we made a lower Value Area high, (1205.00 previously and now 1200.75) which is a bearish indicator we have shown price acceptance, at least overnight, of a higher area. Prices are rotating higher and it doesn’t seem like bears will be in control. We may see a test of the Value Area high and close the gap from 01.75 but after doing so unless Greece forgets to ship more Ouzo, (they sent a tanker load last night) we should see higher prices.
One of these days we will see two down days in a row but I don’t see that happening now based on the current data. I don’t particularly care if the markets go up or they go down just as long as they GO! It’s a difficult job to predict the direction of the market. Many have tried and many have failed to do so. Your odds are better gauging which way the market is going and getting on board for the ride. In other words if a market is going up the probability that it will continue is greater than it wont. And when the market is trading above the OR, Value Areas and the previous day Initial Balance (IB, the first 60 minutes of RTH) then the probabilities are even greater that the markets will trade higher.
I am not a fan of the common Support and Resistance numbers. I find that they don’t work that well. Maybe too many traders are looking at them, mostly amateurs. It’s the same for Fib numbers, they just never sat well with me but a good friend of mine and an excellent market technician swears by them. Its all a matter of finding what fits your logic and personality and learn its characteristics. Value areas make good sense to me. As in any auction process a group of market participants, trading S&P’s, corn or movie futures, will generally agree at a price area that is considered fair by both parties, buyers and sellers. This area is called Value. I also use some proprietary values that work like Market Profile Value Areas. They are areas that when the market tags them there is a high probability that the price will auction back to the middle of the range. If price trades above them with conviction then there is a good chance price will tag the next higher (or lower) number.
It is your assessment of how the market behaves around these figures that can give you a clue if you want to scale out of your position, close it and wait for a reversal sign or add to your position.
Tim Mack
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Supply vs. Demand
Heavy sell Paper came in right off the bell both in the pit and on the screen. That is not unusual; the locals typically scoop this Paper up and they often have the ability to at least bid the price back up to the opening range. At that point they will determine market conditions and gauge if the momentum they gained from being on the bid can continue or not. If it can, they will bust-a-move through the OR. If they see that more Paper sellers are on the horizon or other markets have responded in the same way, showing signs of weakness, they will cover their longs in the mini and go short.
These guys aren’t dummies, far from it. They are there for one thing and that’s to make money day trading. I think a lot of these locals are successful because they can “read the market” and are quick to change direction. However, sometimes they get stuck and then they get stubborn then they get into trouble. Most of the time they can work themselves out of trouble, like today. Sometimes they don’t, like last Friday.
The problem today was Swiss Bank. My guess is that they had inside information about the down grade of Greece debt or at least one of Swiss Banks clients did. They were relentless sellers from 93.50 straight down to 89.25. The locals made a valiant effort to bid the market up but as soon as they saw Swiss back on the offer they ran.
The pit is no different than any other business. Its all about supply and demand. When Swiss is offering a lot of supply (in the form of sell orders) the locals will absorb up to a certain amount. Then when they are at their limit and cant absorb anymore supply, things get can hairy. What happens here is that the locals lower their bids until they feel the price is so low that its worth buying more at bargain prices. I have seen a few occasions on heavy selling where there is no bid at all. Meaning the locals won’t buy at ANY price and there is no Buy Paper available to take the other side of the trade. It’s rare, but it happens.
Today the locals became overloaded and not willing to buy any more so they dropped their bids quickly yet still Swiss hit them with more sell Paper. This looked like it was going to get ugly-hairy but then the knights in shinning armor stepped in. Goldman stepped in and bought 150 cars (contacts). Goldman can afford the best market analysts and their clients are some of the wealthiest traders and fund managers in the world. When Goldman speaks, people listen…at least I do, and the locals do too. They sold to Goldman but quickly covered the trade and got long. You see Swiss stopped selling and there were no other buyers…just Goldman…. That’s all it takes.
You would think Swiss bank had top technicians and they would know better then to sell in to the low of they day, that makes me think all the time, but the reality is that they could be hedging an options trade or they are taking a longer term position or just like me they guess wrong who knows, who cares, The import thing to see how the market reacts to their trades. How the supply is absorbed by the demand. Given how the market traded though the OR and rallied to close near the highs it would look like more upside tomorrow however we did not make a new Value Area high (today’s was 1205.00 ) and we didn’t close above it so we really just ended no fairer than yesterday. We are starting to bounce around here, building value in a consolidation pattern. If we don’t resume our reckless abandonment of buying stocks at any price, we might actually close down more than 2 days in a row.
Tim Mack
These guys aren’t dummies, far from it. They are there for one thing and that’s to make money day trading. I think a lot of these locals are successful because they can “read the market” and are quick to change direction. However, sometimes they get stuck and then they get stubborn then they get into trouble. Most of the time they can work themselves out of trouble, like today. Sometimes they don’t, like last Friday.
The problem today was Swiss Bank. My guess is that they had inside information about the down grade of Greece debt or at least one of Swiss Banks clients did. They were relentless sellers from 93.50 straight down to 89.25. The locals made a valiant effort to bid the market up but as soon as they saw Swiss back on the offer they ran.
The pit is no different than any other business. Its all about supply and demand. When Swiss is offering a lot of supply (in the form of sell orders) the locals will absorb up to a certain amount. Then when they are at their limit and cant absorb anymore supply, things get can hairy. What happens here is that the locals lower their bids until they feel the price is so low that its worth buying more at bargain prices. I have seen a few occasions on heavy selling where there is no bid at all. Meaning the locals won’t buy at ANY price and there is no Buy Paper available to take the other side of the trade. It’s rare, but it happens.
Today the locals became overloaded and not willing to buy any more so they dropped their bids quickly yet still Swiss hit them with more sell Paper. This looked like it was going to get ugly-hairy but then the knights in shinning armor stepped in. Goldman stepped in and bought 150 cars (contacts). Goldman can afford the best market analysts and their clients are some of the wealthiest traders and fund managers in the world. When Goldman speaks, people listen…at least I do, and the locals do too. They sold to Goldman but quickly covered the trade and got long. You see Swiss stopped selling and there were no other buyers…just Goldman…. That’s all it takes.
You would think Swiss bank had top technicians and they would know better then to sell in to the low of they day, that makes me think all the time, but the reality is that they could be hedging an options trade or they are taking a longer term position or just like me they guess wrong who knows, who cares, The import thing to see how the market reacts to their trades. How the supply is absorbed by the demand. Given how the market traded though the OR and rallied to close near the highs it would look like more upside tomorrow however we did not make a new Value Area high (today’s was 1205.00 ) and we didn’t close above it so we really just ended no fairer than yesterday. We are starting to bounce around here, building value in a consolidation pattern. If we don’t resume our reckless abandonment of buying stocks at any price, we might actually close down more than 2 days in a row.
Tim Mack
Pre Market April 22, 2010
Jobless claims declined and the market doesn’t care. Guess all the political talk about Wall Street regulations has everyone depressed. I saw a bit of Geithner interview with Stephanopoulos this morning and was a bit impressed that he was in favor of continued creative products of Wall Street (or La Salle St) like Movie Futures.
We are testing the overnight low now and if we hold 92.25- 91.25 we might get a nice rally off the open to the 1200-1202. If we don’t hold it support comes in at 90.25, 88.0 82.75and 79-78.5.
Anything can happen and sometimes does so its best to “Go with the flow and take advantage of the moment” – Leo Melmade” Former Chairman if the CME
Tim Mack
We are testing the overnight low now and if we hold 92.25- 91.25 we might get a nice rally off the open to the 1200-1202. If we don’t hold it support comes in at 90.25, 88.0 82.75and 79-78.5.
Anything can happen and sometimes does so its best to “Go with the flow and take advantage of the moment” – Leo Melmade” Former Chairman if the CME
Tim Mack
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
A membership will cost you $615,000
If you want to stand in the pit it will cost you a membership fee of $615,000. You can lease a seat but you have to put up a big security deposit.
For the privilege, you get to stand with 100 other guys and a few gals and trade the Spoos, (big S & P contacts). When you’re a Newbie you get to wear a special badge that says you can only trade less than 10 contracts and that the other locals cant abuse you. But they do anyway.
Lord help the Newbie that stands in the spot of another member. Spots inside the pit are “owned” by senior members. They stand there everyday, same spot, month after month, year after year. They know exactly where to look when they want to see the Trin or the cash markets on the boards overhead. But more importantly, they know when the phone rings over their left shoulder it’s a certain desk likely coming in with an order. It could be the clerks girl friend calling wondering why she suddenly got a rash but more than likely, especially when we are on the highs or the lows, the old timers know the phone call is a Paper customer calling with an order.
Because of where we are in the days range and what desk the phone rings, locals have a good idea if the order is a buy order or sell order. When we are on the highs and the Merrill phone rings there is a good probability that’s it’s a buy order, a good time to sell. When it’s the Goldman desk and the phone rings on the high its likely a sell order, another good time to sell. This edge is why a seat costs $615,000, it’s probably undervalued.
Paper entered mixed off the bell this morning. Merrill was a seller, JP was a seller. GS and the locals bought. To me things were looking pretty bullish. All markets were trading above their OR and I had a bullish bias from yesterday’s action. Did I say bias….. That’s the worst thing you can have as a day trader, a bias. I was hunting for longs and I should be hunting only for opportunity. This is not a lesson I learned today. This is a lesson I learn every few weeks, and this has been going on for years. Fortunately it doesn’t cost me much anymore but in the early days it cost plenty, mostly emotionally.
The right phone must have rung over some locals shoulder. I didn’t hear it and I am not standing in the pit so he can’t give me a nod along with his buddies. But they suddenly started getting short at 05.50. It wasn’t that a large buyer stepped in that they sold to. They just started getting short, selling the screen. Some buyers, not a lot, started coming in as they should have, we were above the opening range and even our 9:45 program trader kicked in a buy program. I’m scratching my head. I’m thinking they will have a tough time muscling this market through the OR. They sold every scrape of Paper from 05.50 up to 07.50, the high of the day. What did they see? What did they know? I wanted them to stay long so that they can do all the heavy work while I rode their coattails. That’s usually how my day goes and I’m just fine with it.
Soon after, the NQ started breaking. It broke its OR and led the way. (There is an open out cry pit for the Nazdaq which is next to the S&P pit. All these guys are in ear shot and they all hang at the the same bar and gym so there could have been a signal from that group and not a phone call. That would also explain why I didn’t see it coming).
Locals were aggressive on the offer and I started to believe they were going to get their way. They did and they pushed the market down to the low 98.25. The thing about locals pushing higher or in this case lower is that’s it’s a false move. Meaning that it’s a manipulated move. All manipulated moves, once the pressure is off, will return to the markets fair value area. The market did just that but the bounce back stopped at the bottom of the OR. Market forces then took over. Theses forces were bearish and the market traded lower closing below the OR and the Value area low with the Trin settling at 1.75. At least 1000 cars sold on the cash close between Goldman, JP Morgan and Swiss Bank, the 3 most respectable players. This is a bearish setup for tomorrow. The exception is the Russell (which is like a kid with ADD) and the Vix which settled below 17.0 at 16.32.
We have some big reports tomorrow- producer price index and jobless claims at 8:30 and existing homes sales at 10:00 ET uggg, no wonder Goldman sold the close…..
Tim Mack
For the privilege, you get to stand with 100 other guys and a few gals and trade the Spoos, (big S & P contacts). When you’re a Newbie you get to wear a special badge that says you can only trade less than 10 contracts and that the other locals cant abuse you. But they do anyway.
Lord help the Newbie that stands in the spot of another member. Spots inside the pit are “owned” by senior members. They stand there everyday, same spot, month after month, year after year. They know exactly where to look when they want to see the Trin or the cash markets on the boards overhead. But more importantly, they know when the phone rings over their left shoulder it’s a certain desk likely coming in with an order. It could be the clerks girl friend calling wondering why she suddenly got a rash but more than likely, especially when we are on the highs or the lows, the old timers know the phone call is a Paper customer calling with an order.
Because of where we are in the days range and what desk the phone rings, locals have a good idea if the order is a buy order or sell order. When we are on the highs and the Merrill phone rings there is a good probability that’s it’s a buy order, a good time to sell. When it’s the Goldman desk and the phone rings on the high its likely a sell order, another good time to sell. This edge is why a seat costs $615,000, it’s probably undervalued.
Paper entered mixed off the bell this morning. Merrill was a seller, JP was a seller. GS and the locals bought. To me things were looking pretty bullish. All markets were trading above their OR and I had a bullish bias from yesterday’s action. Did I say bias….. That’s the worst thing you can have as a day trader, a bias. I was hunting for longs and I should be hunting only for opportunity. This is not a lesson I learned today. This is a lesson I learn every few weeks, and this has been going on for years. Fortunately it doesn’t cost me much anymore but in the early days it cost plenty, mostly emotionally.
The right phone must have rung over some locals shoulder. I didn’t hear it and I am not standing in the pit so he can’t give me a nod along with his buddies. But they suddenly started getting short at 05.50. It wasn’t that a large buyer stepped in that they sold to. They just started getting short, selling the screen. Some buyers, not a lot, started coming in as they should have, we were above the opening range and even our 9:45 program trader kicked in a buy program. I’m scratching my head. I’m thinking they will have a tough time muscling this market through the OR. They sold every scrape of Paper from 05.50 up to 07.50, the high of the day. What did they see? What did they know? I wanted them to stay long so that they can do all the heavy work while I rode their coattails. That’s usually how my day goes and I’m just fine with it.
Soon after, the NQ started breaking. It broke its OR and led the way. (There is an open out cry pit for the Nazdaq which is next to the S&P pit. All these guys are in ear shot and they all hang at the the same bar and gym so there could have been a signal from that group and not a phone call. That would also explain why I didn’t see it coming).
Locals were aggressive on the offer and I started to believe they were going to get their way. They did and they pushed the market down to the low 98.25. The thing about locals pushing higher or in this case lower is that’s it’s a false move. Meaning that it’s a manipulated move. All manipulated moves, once the pressure is off, will return to the markets fair value area. The market did just that but the bounce back stopped at the bottom of the OR. Market forces then took over. Theses forces were bearish and the market traded lower closing below the OR and the Value area low with the Trin settling at 1.75. At least 1000 cars sold on the cash close between Goldman, JP Morgan and Swiss Bank, the 3 most respectable players. This is a bearish setup for tomorrow. The exception is the Russell (which is like a kid with ADD) and the Vix which settled below 17.0 at 16.32.
We have some big reports tomorrow- producer price index and jobless claims at 8:30 and existing homes sales at 10:00 ET uggg, no wonder Goldman sold the close…..
Tim Mack
Pre Market April 21 2010
Well I guess the euphoria over Apple earnings is over, gee that was quick. As long as we trade above yesterdays opening range and Value Area low of 1200.25 I will be hunting for longs. If Paper buyers enter off and near the open, the locals being short will try to muscle the market lower. How good of a job they do will tell the nature of the market, at least for the morning session.
I have support at 98.75- 97.00 beyond that, 94.50- 92.75. The 92.75 is my 8 day moving average of the daily Value Area average. Its my line in the sand that says above it long positions pay the best, below it short positions pay the best. Above we have the Globex high, that could be a good candidate for a 1 tick at 09.50, above that 11.00-12.00 should slow this irrational exuberance.
Tim Mack
I have support at 98.75- 97.00 beyond that, 94.50- 92.75. The 92.75 is my 8 day moving average of the daily Value Area average. Its my line in the sand that says above it long positions pay the best, below it short positions pay the best. Above we have the Globex high, that could be a good candidate for a 1 tick at 09.50, above that 11.00-12.00 should slow this irrational exuberance.
Tim Mack
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
End of Day Recap
Size Paper buyers came in on the opening bell. Soon after more Paper buyers came in to the market. The locals sold and were short. As the first 30 minutes of trade continued more buyers came in. Locals, already short and holding the OR high, continued to sell to them. They did a fair job offering the price lower and there was a great opportunity to get short on a bounce off the OR high.
Then the best thing that could happen happened. Merrill Lynch came in a buyer. Merrill is like the ol’ Lind Waldock. Remember them? When these guys come in you can almost guarantee the market will trade in the other direction. In fact they are often buying the high and selling the low.
Locals, size short, were aggressive offering the price lower. Paper seemed quiet. The buyers were done and no sell paper came in. The locals should have had an easy job of it to push this market lower. But they ran into a wall at yesterdays high and it wasn’t from Paper entering the market. It was the electronic side of the market. This side can stop them in their tracks and it did. I lost my Time and Sales and Market Delta due to technical issues so I couldn’t see it happening live. But I have seen it before and it becomes more common place as institutional traders move to the screen more and more.
Nevertheless, when the locals are short and they can’t do a good job pushing the market lower, you better flatten up and pick a place to get long. You also know we are in a strong bullish market.
We corrected the Goldman news selloff, the Volcano is no longer causing flight delays and Greece sent a case of their best Ouzo to Germany’s Chancellor so all is well there until the hangover hits.
We created higher value today and closed above all OR’s, well it took the NQ and RU the aftermarket to do it. The Vix closed well below 17.00 at 15.23 UGGGG! So it would appear that we are back on track to new contract highs. Its back to "close my eyes, lift any offer and take a nap."
That all being said watch us crash tomorrow, lol
Tim Mack
Then the best thing that could happen happened. Merrill Lynch came in a buyer. Merrill is like the ol’ Lind Waldock. Remember them? When these guys come in you can almost guarantee the market will trade in the other direction. In fact they are often buying the high and selling the low.
Locals, size short, were aggressive offering the price lower. Paper seemed quiet. The buyers were done and no sell paper came in. The locals should have had an easy job of it to push this market lower. But they ran into a wall at yesterdays high and it wasn’t from Paper entering the market. It was the electronic side of the market. This side can stop them in their tracks and it did. I lost my Time and Sales and Market Delta due to technical issues so I couldn’t see it happening live. But I have seen it before and it becomes more common place as institutional traders move to the screen more and more.
Nevertheless, when the locals are short and they can’t do a good job pushing the market lower, you better flatten up and pick a place to get long. You also know we are in a strong bullish market.
We corrected the Goldman news selloff, the Volcano is no longer causing flight delays and Greece sent a case of their best Ouzo to Germany’s Chancellor so all is well there until the hangover hits.
We created higher value today and closed above all OR’s, well it took the NQ and RU the aftermarket to do it. The Vix closed well below 17.00 at 15.23 UGGGG! So it would appear that we are back on track to new contract highs. Its back to "close my eyes, lift any offer and take a nap."
That all being said watch us crash tomorrow, lol
Tim Mack
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